| 摘要: |
| 在国土空间规划体系下协调乡村振
兴过程中蓄洪区村庄的发展诉求与蓄洪任务
在土地利用上的矛盾冲突，指导村庄规划的
编制。文章基于2009 年和2022 年土地利用
数据，以蓄洪安全为底线，落实“三区三
线”划定成果，运用PLUS模型对2035 年城
东湖蓄洪区部分村庄的土地利用展开多情景
模拟预测。研究表明：研究区域2009 年和
2022 年土地利用符合蓄洪区村庄特征。
PLUS 模型适用于研究区域，能有效衔接国
土空间规划，具有较高的准确度。3 大情景
模拟预测结果差异明显，产业优先情景优先
保障了建设用地，蓄洪优先情景保障了陆地
水域，综合发展情景各项用地供给较为均
衡。基于上述结论，情景对应着不同的蓄洪
区村庄发展定位，模拟预测结果可指导蓄洪
区村庄的国土空间布局、落实永久基本农田
保护任务、局部优化城镇开发边界。 |
| 关键词: 国土空间规划体系 土地利用变
化 蓄洪区村庄 PLUS模型 “三区三线” |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20241007002 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金重大项目（23&ZD114）；教育部人文社会科学研究项目（23YJCZH245） |
|
| Land use simulation and prediction for villages in flood storage areas under the territorialspatial planning system: A case of villages in the Chengdong Lake Flood Storage Area |
|
WANG Lin,HAO Zeqiang,XIA Jing
|
| Abstract: |
| Flood storage areas are an important component of China′s river flood control system. They
serve both as reservoirs for floodwaters and as living spaces for the local residents. Flood storage
areas have achieved remarkable results in storing floodwaters, reducing peak flood levels, and
protecting the lives and property. However, the frequent storage of floodwaters leads to difficulties in
accumulating wealth in flood storage areas, thereby restricting economic development. As a result,
there is an inevitable conflict between the development needs of villages in flood storage areas and
the requirements of flood storage. In the context of rural revitalization, it is necessary to use territorial
spatial planning to resolve this conflict and to make coordinated arrangements for the land use of
villages in flood storage areas. The study takes six villages and a community in the Yu’an District
section of the Chengdong Lake Flood Storage Area within the Huaihe River Basin as the study area.
Based on the land use data in 2009 and 2022, the PLUS model was used to simulate and verify the
land use in the study area in 2022. Furthermore, taking the outcomes of the “Three Zones and Three
Lines” demarcation and flood storage safety as the bottom line, and based on natural development
scenario, three scenarios were set to predict the quantity and distribution of various land use types in
the study area by 2035. It proposes optimization strategies for the land use of villages in flood storage
areas under different scenarios, thereby provides guidance for village planning in flood storage areas.
The land use and its changes in the study area exhibit typical characteristics of villages in flood
storage areas. Land use is primarily for farmland, followed by inland waters, while construction land
is concentrated in Baozhuangwei refuge areas and on natural highlands. From 2009 to 2022, there
were significant changes in the land use in the study area. The land primarily shifted from being used
for construction land purposes to being converted into farmland, as well as garden land, woodland,
grassland, and wetland. The PLUS model is suitable for the study area, with an overall accuracy of
88% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.75, indicating a high degree of precision. The PLUS model can take
flood storage safety as the bottom line, effectively integrate with the planning target year and the
outcomes of the “Three Zones and Three Lines” demarcation of territorial spatial planning. The
model performs well in analyzing the driving forces of the expansion of different land use types from
2009 to 2022. The distance to rivers, residential areas, and roads has a significant impact on the
expansion of various land use types.The land use simulation and prediction results for the study area
by 2035 show a similar overall development trend, with significant differences among the three
scenarios. The similarities are reflected in the increase in farmland and other types of land use, as well
as the decrease in garden land, woodland, grassland, and wetland, as well as inland waters. The
industrial priority scenario gives priority to the supply of construction land, making it suitable for the
villages in flood storage areas where the construction land and supporting facilities can serve the
surrounding areas and have significant development potential. The flood storage priority scenario
ensures the protection of inland waters and other types of land use, making it suitable for the villagesin flood storage areas where the majority of the land is below the designed flood storage level and where flood storage is the primary function. The
comprehensive development scenario provides balanced land supply, making it suitable for the villages in flood storage areas where both village development
and flood storage capabilities are of great importance.Different scenarios correspond to the various development orientations of villages in flood storage areas.
The land use simulation and prediction results under the appropriate scenarios can be used to guide the territorial spatial layout of villages in flood storage
areas, implement the protection tasks of permanent basic farmland, and locally optimize Urban Development Boundary. The study has conducted a practice on
land use simulation and prediction for villages in flood storage areas under the territorial spatial planning system, with the aim of providing a reference for
similar practices. |
| Key words: territorial spatial planning system land use change village in flood storage areas PLUS model “Three Zones and Three Lines” |
