| 摘要: |
| 理解复杂的人口流动图景对于科学
推进城镇化具有重要意义。以贵州省安顺市
为例，基于1万余份市区、县城、镇区和村庄
四类居民调查问卷，预测潜力地区的人口
乡—城和城—城流动图景，并解析典型特征，
运用逻辑回归分析人口流动意愿的影响因素，
提出提升城镇化水平的政策建议。结果表明，
从流动意愿来看，城乡人口将持续向高行政
级别城镇迁移，呈现乡—城流动“跳两三
级”、城—城流动“跳一级”特征，城镇吸引
农村人口和留住居民的能力与其行政级别呈
正相关；土地、住房和子女教育等因素显著
影响农村人口进城意愿，年龄较小、本地居
住时间短、受教育程度高的市区居民更可能
流向高行政级别城市。城乡人口流动引发集
聚效应、选择效应和虹吸效应，应顺应人口
流动趋势，针对性地培育发展现代化都市
圈，完善市区综合功能，补齐县城短板弱
项，推动城乡融合发展，促进大中小城市和
小城镇协调发展。 |
| 关键词: 城镇化 潜力地区 人口流动 影
响因素 问卷调查 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20240606002 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
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| Man struggles upwards: Forecasting population migration and crafting effectiveurbanization policies in areas with low urbanization levels |
|
LONG Maoqian,HU Ming,TONG Peng,OUYANG Peng
|
| Abstract: |
| As the old adage goes，man seeks his way up just as water seeks its way down. Within the
context of China’s dualistic urban-rural structure and the urban administrative hierarchical, people
often embark on a journey away from their rural roots to urban areas, or from county seats to urban
centers, and from urban centers to provincial capitals. This movement is driven by the pursuit of
higher wages, a wider array of job opportunities, and superior public services. This multi-directional
migration is a defining characteristic of China’ s rapid urbanization process and a significant factor
influencing the demographic distribution between urban and rural areas, as well as among cities.
Gaining a comprehensive understanding of this intricate migration pattern is crucial for the scientific
advancement of urbanization.China is currently placing a significant emphasis on enhancing the level
of urbanization within areas with low urbanization level. To uncover the migration dynamics in these
areas and tackle the associated challenges, the following three questions are posed: What is the current
state of population migration in areas with low urbanization level? What factors influence the
willingness of people to migrate, shaping the migration patterns observed in these regions? What
challenges are presented by these migration trends, and how can the government effectively respond
to them in the future?This research focuses on Anshun City in Guizhou Province as a case study to
conduct a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics and patterns of migration in areas with low
urbanization level. Characterized by a low urbanization rate, a modest economic scale, a small
population, and a notable outflow of residents, Anshun City is emblematic of the urbanization
challenges faced by central and western regions in China. As a key component of the Qianzhong
Urban Agglomeration and the Guiyang Metropolitan Area, Anshun City enjoys a close relationship
with the provincial capital, Guiyang, yet it also grapples with the substantial impact of Guiyang’s
gravitational pull on its population and resources.The research data is derived from an online survey
conducted among urban and rural residents of Anshun City between October and November 2020,
yielding a total of 10, 644 responses. Designed to discern variations in migration intentions and
preferred destinations among residents from different locations, the survey gathered detailed personal
information, future migration plans, and recommendations for urban and rural development. Utilizing
the responses from residents across the urban center, county seats, townships, and villages, the study
employs logistic regression analysis to uncover the determinants influencing residents’ willingness to
migrate. This study presents two key findings. First, both rural and urban residents are likely to
continue migrating to higher-tier cities, with the capacity of cities and towns to attract rural residents
and retain their own being directly related to their administrative status. There is a notable divergence
in urban migration preferences between those moving from rural to urban areas and those moving
within urban areas. Rural-to-urban migrants exhibit a pronounced inclination towards migrating to
areas with higher administrative levels, often skipping two or three tiers. The hierarchy of migration
preference among the three-tiered towns is as follows: urban centers are preferred over county seats,which in turn are preferred over township areas. Conversely, urban-to-urban migration tends to involve moving to the nearest higher level, typically skipping
just one tier. Township residents show a greater propensity to move to county seats rather than directly to urban centers, while county seat residents are more
inclined to move to urban centers rather than to provincial capitals.Second, factors such as land ownership, housing, and children’s education significantly
impact the migration intentions of rural residents to urban areas. In essence, rural residents who are female, young, have resided in the area for a brief period,
and possess higher levels of education are more likely to migrate to urban settings. Similarly, urban residents who are younger, have lived in their current
location for a short time, and are more educated are more likely to move to higher-tier cities, such as Guiyang City.Migration triggers the agglomeration effect,
selection effect, and siphon effect. Initially, migration fosters an agglomeration effect, amplifying the economic benefits of cities and regions. Subsequently, it
enhances labor productivity and restructures the urban system through selective mechanisms. Lastly, an overabundance of migration to central cities can stifle
regional economic development via the siphon effect.The government should align its policies with migration trends, cultivate modern metropolitan areas, and
enhance the functionality of urban centers and county seats. On one hand, central and local governments should guide central cities to spearhead the integrated
development of metropolitan regions and promote the coordinated development of large, medium and small cities. On the other hand, local governments should
capitalize on the resource and industrial strengths of urban centers to develop distinctive industries tailored to local conditions, thereby fulfilling the
employment and public service demands of new citizens.County seats, positioned at the “threshold of the urban and the forefront of the countryside”, serve as
vital links and conduits for integrating urban and rural development. They are instrumental in supporting the integrated development of urban and rural areas.
Moreover, it is crucial to strategically cultivate key towns and prevent the indiscriminate proliferation of small town construction. |
| Key words: urbanization areas with low urbanization level migration influencing factors questionnaire survey |
