| 摘要: |
| 非机动出行和公共交通出行通常被认为相较于驾
车出行是更低碳的出行方式。本文基于这一背景提出一种
城市低碳出行潜力的分级评估方法。该方法将可能转变为
非机动出行的机动出行人群在全部出行人群中的数量占比
定义为城市交通一级低碳出行潜力，将可能转变为公共交
通出行的驾车出行人群在全部出行人群中的数量占比定义
为城市交通二级低碳出行潜力，从而整体呈现城市在控制
交通碳排放方面的可进步空间。该方法考虑距离是非机动
出行较之于机动出行的主要不利因素而影响居民非机动出
行意愿，接驳、绕行、换乘是公共交通出行较之于驾车出
行的主要不利因素而影响居民公共交通出行意愿，从而通
过对居民实际出行距离以及公共交通出行模式下实际接
驳、绕行、换乘强度值与假定居民最大可接受出行距离以
及最大可接受接驳、绕行、换乘强度值的比较，识别假定
场景中可能转变为相应等级低碳出行的人群数量并据此计
算相应的低碳出行潜力值，然后进一步分析其值随居民对
于非机动出行可接受距离以及公共交通出行可接受接驳、
绕行、换乘强度阈值变化的趋势并拟合其关系曲线，发现
拟合曲线呈现反向“S”型态，由此识别了曲线的“快速
变化区”及“关键点”。本文以中国上海市及武汉市为例，
基于19 732份居民日常出行OD调查样本对两个城市的低
碳出行潜力进行了分级评估，由此分析了两个城市的低碳
出行潜力特征并比较了两个城市的低碳出行潜力差异。 |
| 关键词: 低碳出行潜力 非机动出行 公共交通 接
驳 绕行 换乘 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20240518002 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:湖北省社会科学基金（HBSKJJ20243300）；湖北省交通运输科技计划项目（2020-186-3-1）；道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室（同济大学）
开放基金（K202407）；达州市建筑环境工程技术研究中心开放课题（SDJ2025ZB-04） |
|
| Stratified assessment of urban low-carbon travel potential and analysis of influencingfactors: Two cases of Shanghai Municipality and Wuhan city |
|
PENG Ran,CHEN Pengyu,DING Keyuan,LIU Feiyang
|
| Abstract: |
| Urban transportation systems have a substantial potential for carbon emission
reduction, particularly through promoting low-carbon travel modes such as nonmotorized
travel (e.g., walking and cycling) and public transportation. Compared to car
travel, these modes do not only reduce carbon emissions but also contribute positively to
overall urban air quality and resident health. Based on this context, this paper develops a
novel stratified assessment framework for urban low-carbon travel potential, introducing
two distinct levels of assessment. The first level, termed “Tier 1 low-carbon travel
potential,” represents the proportion of current motorized travelers who could
realistically shift to non-motorized travel modes. The second level, “Tier 2 low-carbon
travel potential,” indicates the proportion of car travelers who might switch to public
transportation, thus providing a multi-layered approach for gauging cities’ carbon
reduction opportunities within their transportation systems. This study hypothesizes that
distance is the primary limiting factor affecting residents’ willingness to engage in nonmotorized
travel over motorized travel, while factors such as connection convenience,
detour requirements, and transfer intensity hinder public transportation use in favor of car
travel. Therefore, this study defines quantitative parameters, including maximum
acceptable distance for non-motorized travel and maximum acceptable strengths for
public transportation connection, detour, and transfer. By comparing actual resident travel
distances and intensities under these parameters in hypothetical scenarios, the study
identifies and quantifies the populations in Shanghai and Wuhan that could potentially
shift to each low-carbon travel tier. Further analysis examines trends in these potential
shifts in relation to changes in residents’ acceptable thresholds for non-motorized
distance and public transportation intensities. The relationship curves reveal an inverse
“S” -shaped trend, with identified “rapid change zones” and “critical points” where lowcarbon
travel potential undergoes significant shifts. Using Shanghai and Wuhan as case
studies, the paper calculates the low-carbon travel potential for both cities, providing a
graded and nuanced assessment that highlights specific characteristics of low-carbon
travel potential and compares the differences between these two major Chinese cities. In
terms of methodology, the research draws on 19 732 daily travel Origin-Destination (OD)
survey samples from residents of Shanghai and Wuhan. These cities were chosen for
their distinct geographical and infrastructural features: Shanghai, with its dense urban
population and extensive public transportation network, serves as a prime example of ahighly developed transportation system. In contrast, Wuhan, known for its unique geography with intersecting rivers and numerous lakes, presents a case where
natural barriers pose unique challenges for urban transportation development.To calculate potential low-carbon travel mode shifts, the study defines several key
metrics based on OD data, such as the Non-motorized Travel Strength (Sn) for walking or cycling trips and various Public Transportation Strength, including
Connection Strength (Sc), Detour Strength (Sd), and Transfer Strength (St). NTS is defined as the total distance traveled between origin and destination points via
non-motorized means, while Public Transportation Strength metrics are calculated based on distances related to walking connections, route detours, and transfers
encountered within public transportation networks. These metrics help quantify the feasibility of residents switching to low-carbon travel based on various cityspecific
scenarios.The assessment approach introduces two classification levels for potential low-carbon travelers. In Tier 1, individuals are classified based on
their maximum acceptable distance for non-motorized travel, allowing a distinction between residents who currently use motorized transport but could feasibly
shift to walking or cycling. Tier 2 further differentiates travelers by considering public transportation as a lower-carbon alternative to car travel, using maximum
acceptable strengths for Sc, Sd, and St. The stratified classification includes both “Active” and “Passive” low-carbon travelers within each tier, representing
individuals who are either already engaging in low-carbon travel or could be encouraged to shift under the right conditions. The results of this analysis indicate
that both cities exhibit significant low-carbon travel potential, although Shanghai’s potential generally surpasses that of Wuhan. Specifically, Shanghai shows a
higher Tier 1 potential due to its developed non-motorized travel infrastructure, while its Tier 2 potential also outpaces Wuhan’s due to a higher proportion of car
users. The comparative curve analysis shows that Shanghai’s and Wuhan’s Tier 1 potential curves nearly converge at higher thresholds, indicating similar travel
behavior once non-motorized distances reach approximately 10 km. However, for Tier 2 potential, significant differences emerge based on connection and detour
factors, with Shanghai residents displaying a higher tolerance for transfers and detours.The findings underscore specific areas for urban policy intervention. For
Tier 1, enhancing the walking and cycling infrastructure within rapid change zones can potentially increase the proportion of residents who shift from motorized
travel to non-motorized modes, thus maximizing carbon reduction potential. For Tier 2, optimizing public transportation accessibility—particularly by reducing
transfer and detour requirements—can increase the attractiveness of public transportation as a viable alternative to car travel, with both Shanghai and Wuhan
benefiting significantly.The study concludes that urban low-carbon travel potential follows an inverse “S” -shaped pattern, with key thresholds where strategic
interventions may lead to substantial reductions in urban carbon emissions. The graded assessment approach provides urban planners with a practical framework
to identify rapid change zones and prioritize specific infrastructural improvements to support low-carbon travel adoption. This research has significant
implications for cities seeking to reduce carbon emissions through more efficient and sustainable urban transportation policies. |
| Key words: low-carbon travel potential non-motorized travel public transportation connection detour transfer |
