| 摘要: |
| 丘陵地区脆弱的生态环境对城镇发展
造成了较大的制约，城市发展与生态保护之间
的矛盾相对突出。基于生态容量模拟的方法能
促进生态效应与社会经济效应的协调统一，为
城镇开发提供基础保障。现有城镇生态容量的
确定方法未能对丘陵地区开发生态环境复杂
敏感、建设不可逆、测算标准不统一等问题提
出针对性措施，存在着一定的局限性。本文在
“生态容量”和“丘陵地区城镇建设特点”认知
的基础上，分析现有生态容量确定方法，并在当
前国土空间规划背景下形成生态容量模拟的建
构逻辑，提出综合性的多情景模拟方法，并以中
新（广州）知识城为例，探究该方法的应用，为
生态文明背景下丘陵地区城镇开发提供理论支
撑和实践借鉴。 |
| 关键词: 生态容量 多情景模拟 丘陵地区 城
镇开发 国土空间规划 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20230402 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划子课题（2022YFF1303105-4）；
国家自然科学基金面上项目（51978173） |
|
| Study on the Scale of Urban Development in Hilly Areas Based on Ecological Capacity Simulation: A Case Study of Sino-Singapore (Guangzhou) Knowledge City |
|
CAI Yunnan,ZHANG Manying
|
| Abstract: |
| Hilly areas have high land potentials, the key issues are to determine the scale of
development reasonably and guide the urban development and construction correctly. However,
hilly areas are characterized by environmental complexity, sensitivity of development and
irreversibility of construction. The fragile ecological environment has caused great constraints to
the urban development, and the contradiction between urban development and ecological protection
is prominent. In recent years, people from all walks of life have systematically thought about the
pattern of territorial space development and paid more and more attention to the development
research of hilly areas. Territorial spatial planning optimizes the overall pattern of territorial space
through the overall layout of ecological, agricultural, urban and other functional Spaces. Among
them, determining the scale of development scientifically and reasonably is the key and difficult point
of national space planning. For the development of hilly areas, reasonable ecological capacity is an
important prerequisite for determining the scale of urban development and an important guarantee
for ecological security. The method based on ecological capacity simulation can promote the
coordination and unity of ecological effect and social economic effect, and provide basic guarantee
for urban development. The existing methods for determining ecological capacity have limitations
because they fail to put forward specific measures for the complex and sensitive ecological
environment, irreversible construction and inconsistent measurement standards in hilly areas.
Therefore, on the basis of forming the basic cognition of “ecological capacity” and “characteristics
of urban construction in hilly areas”, this paper analyzes the existing methods of determining
ecological capacity, and forms the construction logic of ecological capacity simulation under the
background of new concepts and policies of current territorial spatial planning. Based on this,
this paper proposes a comprehensive multi-scenario simulation method, and takes Sino-Singapore
(Guangzhou) Knowledge City as an example. This paper describes the practice of determining the
development scale of towns in hilly areas by ecological capacity and multi-scenario simulation.
This paper is mainly divided into four parts: the concept of ecological capacity and the problems
faced in the determination of urban ecological capacity in hilly areas, the determination method and
analysis of ecological capacity, the theoretical construction and multi-scenario simulation method
of ecological capacity simulation, and the application of ecological capacity simulation in the
development of Sino-Singapore (Guangzhou) Knowledge City. The first part analyzes the relevant
concepts and theoretical basis of ecological capacity, makes it clear that ecological capacity is a key
indicator for the coordination and unification of ecological effect and social economic effect, and
is a key limit for identifying where development can be made and where development cannot be
made in a r敥潧物敯瑮椬挠慡汮?猠畨灯灷漠牴瑯?慤湥摴?灲牭慩据瑥椠捴慨汥?牤敥晶敥牬敯湰捭敥獮?映潩牮?略牮扳慩湴?搮攠癁整氠潴灨浥攠湳瑡?楥渠?桩業汥氬礠?慴爠敡慬獳?甠湡摮敡牬?瑺桥敳?戊慴捨步朠牤潩畦湦摩?潵晬?敩捥潳氠潩杮椠捤慥汴?捲業癩楮汩楮穧愠瑥楣潯湬?gical capacity in such areas through the overall characteristics
of urban construction in hilly areas. The second part mainly introduces the current commonly
used ecological capacity measurement methods and their calculation processes, and analyzes the
ecological footprint method in detail. It is concluded that ecological capacity measurement plays a unified and quantitative role in assessment, but there are still shortcomings such as lack of technical means, technical systems and standards for complex
habitats in hilly areas, which have not been updated for a long time. It provides the basic references for the construction of the later theory. The third part
expounds the construction logic of ecological capacity simulation theory, and focuses on analyzing three supporting theories related to the background
of territorial space planning, namely, the “double evaluation” theory of territorial space, the ecological security pattern theory of territorial space and the
game theory of territorial space use control. At the same time, the multi-scenario simulation method is described. It shows that urban ecological capacity
simulation is a process of determining the most suitable urban development scale step by step under the consideration of various factors, and a process of
coordinating ecological security and urban growth management with urban space as the hub from a composite perspective. In the fourth part, the ecological
capacity simulation application is carried out based on the development case of Sino-Singapore (Guangzhou) Knowledge City. Starting from the ecological
background evaluation, the actual data is analyzed and simulated according to the constructed simulation framework, and finally the optimal ecological
capacity is proposed. It is expected that this method will organically combine forecasting, simulation, multi-objective decision-making and policy design, and
provide th |
| Key words: Ecological Capacity Multi-Scenario Simulation Hilly Region Urban Development Territorial Spatial Planning |
