|
| 摘要: |
| 人群集聚发生传染，而人群流动导致
传播，基于人群活动的空间分布特征进行大城市
疫情扩散风险预测是做好常态化防疫和制定突
发公共卫生事件应急响应机制的重要前提。以
武汉为例，基于移动位置服务数据（LBS）、空
间聚集热点（POI）、历史疫情特征等对传染病
动力学模型（SEIR）进行适应性改进，结合空
间分析技术（GIS）进行街道尺度的疫情扩散风
险预测，划分不同空间风险等级。结果表明，高
风险街道主要在中心城区边界处成片分布，在
乡镇地区也少量存在。高风险街道内防疫相关空
间要素的统计结果表明：高风险街道职住平衡
度较低，且大部分街道现状人均绿地低于武汉
市的平均值；远城区及部分乡镇地区高风险街
道15 min生活圈的服务设施点配置较少，不利于
紧急时期防疫及基本生活物资的供给；社区医
疗卫生设施在高风险区覆盖率低，而部分街道综合医院密集，可能加剧周边居民的感染风险。基
于研究结论，初步提出促进高风险街道的职住平衡和公共绿地建设、完善社区服务设施配置的
平疫结合、提高远城区社区医疗设施的覆盖率、分散化综合医院的布局等建议。 |
| 关键词: 防疫风险评估 人群活动 防疫管控 资源配置 医疗设施 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20220508 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Study on Epidemic Risk Prediction and Control Elements for Urban CountermeasuresBased on Population Mobility: Taking Wuhan City as an Example |
|
GUO Liang, PENG Yuqing, HE Hui
|
| Abstract: |
| Crowd clustering occurs as infection, while crowd movement leads to transmission.
The rapid development of cities makes the damage of public health emergencies to the normal
life of residents increasingly severe. With epidemic prevention and control as the goal, risk
prediction and foundation, the spatial configuration of relevant urban elements can be done
in advance for high-risk areas in three aspects, such as disease prevention, patient screening
and treatment, and daily life protection in emergency periods, which can turn passivity into
initiative in response to an epidemic outbreak.
In this paper, we adapt the infectious disease dynamics model (SEIR) based on mobile location
service data (LBS), spatial aggregation hotspots (POI), and historical epidemic characteristics at
the street management unit scale, and combine spatial analysis technology (GIS) to predict the risk
of epidemic spread at the street scale, classify different spatial risk levels, focus on identifying the
distribution of high-risk streets. The results show that high-risk streets are mainly distributed in
patches at the boundaries of central urban areas, and also exist in small numbers in rural areas.
The statistical results of the spatial elements related to epidemic prevention and control in highrisk
streets show that: the balance of occupancy and residence in high-risk streets is low, and the
current per capita green space in most streets is lower than the average value of Wuhan City; the
configuration of service facilities in the 15-minute living circle of high-risk streets in remote urban
areas and some township areas is low, which is not conducive to the supply of epidemic prevention
and basic living materials in emergency periods; the coverage of community medical and health
facilities in high-risk areas is low, and some streets have dense general hospitals. In addition, some
of the streets are densely populated with general hospitals, which may aggravate the risk of infection
for the surrounding residents.
In case of emergency health emergencies, when a certain area is under closed management,
commercial facility points based on the supply of food and daily supplies are key to guaranteeing normal
life for residents; when there is a large-scale outbreak, the grassroots screening of community medical
institutions and the capacity of designated hospitals for treatment and reception are crucial; in the case of insufficient beds for treatment, large open spaces in cities,
etc. can provide sites for new infectious disease hospitals. In the case of insufficient treatment beds, large open spaces in the city can provide space for the location of
new infectious disease hospitals and act as a barrier to the spread of diseases. Based on the shortcomings of the current situation, planning and control suggestions
are made to strengthen the balance of jobs and housing at the street scale, improve the construction of public green space, improve the configuration of living
facilities in the 15-minute living circle by combining flat and epidemic, and target the allocation of medical resources.
The spread of public health emergencies and the extent of damage are influenced by a variety of factors, and a variety of social resources need
to be deployed for epidemic prevention and control when an event occurs. The epidemic transmission model in this paper is not aimed at accurately
predicting the number of cases of the new crown epidemic in 2020 and 2021, but takes the transmission characteristics of the new crown virus as an
example to analyze the possible transmission caused by other public health emergencies in the future. However, with the diversification of available
urban spatial information data and the construction of various information platforms, the detection and early warning of urban spatial epidemic
transmission based on real-time crowd flow changes, traffic operation, ecological environment and other data will be more scientific and accurate,
and provide more scientific guidance for the rational allocation of urban epidemic prevention-related facilities and resources. |
| Key words: Epidemic Prevention Risk Assessment Population Movement Epidemic Prevention and Control Resource Allocation Medical Facilities |
