| 摘要: |
| 伴随着城镇化和工业化快速发展，聚
落空间结构发生变化。具有产业发展基础，区位
和经济条件较好的产业聚集型乡村聚落变化更
为显著。本研究提出了衡量产业聚集型乡村聚落
空间要素与其空间演变影响因素量化关系的方
法，并以浙江省宁波市5个典型产业聚集型乡村
聚落为研究样本进行实证检验。检验结果表明，
研究样本空间模拟结果与实际空间格局较为吻
合，模拟精度较高，说明该方法具有一定科学性
与应用性，从而建立了产业聚集型乡村聚落空间
演变模拟模型。模型显示：道路通达性因素对
居住用地、绿地与开敞空间用地等建设用地影
响程度显著，地形地貌因素与非建设用地变化
更为相关，而生产环境因素并非是产业聚集型乡
村聚落空间演变的主导因素。 |
| 关键词: 乡村聚落 产业聚集 空间演变 模拟模型 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20220407 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFD1100300） |
|
| Research on a Simulation Model for Spatial Evolution of Industrial-Led DevelopmentRural Settlement: Taking 5 Villages in Ningbo as Examples |
|
LI Yang,ZHANG Xiaotong,YU Linjun,JIANG Guanghui
|
| Abstract: |
| With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, China’s rural
areas are facing serious problems such as population loss and weak development of modern
agriculture. With the gradual transfer of agricultural labor to non-agricultural industries, some
villages with better basic conditions have gradually transformed from a purely agricultural
economy to a development format that integrates industry and agriculture, and the spatial and
industrial structure of rural settlements is constantly changing. The changes in the spatial
pattern of rural settlements have always been affected by human activities, but human changes
in the layout and spatial structure of settlements are inevitable. Therefore, by simulating the
change of rural settlement land, that is, the evolution process of various spatial elements,
establishing a simulation model for spatial evolution of rural settlement is of great significance
for judging the development direction of rural settlement space and guiding rural planning.
Most of the existing studies use the CA-Markov model to simulate the changes in the spatial
pattern of rural settlements at the meso-scale and above, and there are few studies focusing on
the spatial evolution of a single rural settlement, especially for industrial-led development rural
settlement. This study proposes a method to measure the quantitative relationship between
the spatial elements of industrial-led development rural settlements and the influencing
factors of spatial evolution. On the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of the spatial
evolution of industrial-led development rural settlements, the MCE-CA-Markov model is
used to explore its quantitative relationship with the spatial elements of rural settlements,
and a method for building a simulation model for the spatial evolution of industrial-led
development rural settlements is formed. The empirical test is carried out with five typical
industrial-led development rural settlements including Jiajueke Village, Lingang Village
and Shangpu Village, Qiangjiao Town, Ninghai County, Ningbo City, and Tong Village and
Sha Village, Tangxi Town, Yinzhou District, Ningbo City. Based on the three-phase spatial
element distribution data of the 5 cases, as well as the spatial evolution influencing factors data
of each case, such as elevation, slope, river, and road, according to the four steps of setting
conversion rules, making a suitability atlas, simulating the distribution of spatial elements, and
verifying the simulation accuracy. The spatial distribution of five industrial-led developmentrural settlements is simulated respectively. The simulation results and the actual spatial element distribution data of the third period are tested for
accuracy, and the simulation results are carried out through multiple rounds until the simulation results show good results. It shows that the spatial
simulation results of the research samples are in good agreement with the actual spatial pattern, and the simulation accuracy is high, indicating that
the method has certain scientificity and applicability, thus establishing a digital matrix of the correlation between the spatial elements of industrial-
led development rural settlements and the influencing factors of spatial evolution, that is, the simulation model of the spatial evolution of industrial-
led development rural settlements. In the model, various spatial evolution influencing factors are independent variables, and various spatial elements
are dependent variables. Among them, the independent variables include 10 indicators such as elevation, slope, distance from roads, river waters,
basic farmland, and traditional buildings, and the dependent variables include 11 types of spatial elements such as cultivated land, forest land, garden
land, and residential land. It can be seen from the model that road accessibility factors, such as the distance from the highway and the distance from
the main road of the village, have a significant impact on construction land such as residential land, public management and public service land.
Topographical factors such as elevation and slope indicators are more relevant to non-construction land changes. Compared with the former, the
production environment factor is not the dominant factor in the spatial evolution of industrial-led development rural settlements. |
| Key words: Rural Settlement Industrial-Led Development Spatial Evolution Simulation Model |
