| 摘要: |
| 面对我国量大面广的村庄规划问题，如
何通过数字化技术科学理性地指导村庄土地
利用，从而协调乡村生产、生活、生态空间的关
系，成为当下村庄规划编制过程中一大难点。基
于此，本文通过对FLUS模型的理解，针对村庄
土地变更的要求进行调整与优化。并通过调整
FLUS模型模拟参数，设定村庄发展的四大情
景，从而创新性地提出一种基于FLUS模型的多
情景村庄土地利用模拟的方法。并以农业主导
型的村庄——凉风垭村为例进行模拟试验，结
合村庄现状基本情况和城镇发展目标，选择合
适的村庄发展情景，引导村庄土地利用布局，统
筹协调好乡村生产、生活、生态空间的关系，促
进村庄规划走向精准与智慧化。 |
| 关键词: 村庄规划 土地利用 多情景模拟 FLUS模型 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20220406 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFD1100300） |
|
| Research on the Method of Applying Multi-Scenario Simulation to Village Land Use Layout |
|
LI Heping,HE Yanqing,LAI Wentao
|
| Abstract: |
| At present, there are some practical problems in the development direction and
planning method of villages in China, which lead to the adverse situation of thousands of
villages with the same features and the scientific nature of village planning. At the same time,
as an important starting point of China’s rural revitalization strategy, village planning shoulders
the mission of land space control and utilization in rural areas. The layout of land use planning
is the core content, which is the direct embodiment of rural socio-economic form and spatial
pattern. It is urgent to find reasonable and scientific methods to optimize planning methods.
Therefore, in the face of large-scale and wide-ranging village planning problems and planning
needs in China, how to use digital technology to scientifically and rationally guide village land
use, so as to coordinate the relationship between rural production and living ecological space,
has become a major difficulty in the current village planning process.
Based on the current research situation of multi-scenario simulation and simulation model
in the field of academic research, this paper takes multi-scenario simulation as the breakthrough
point, applies FLUS model to simulate the future land use form of villages at the village level,
constructs the multi-scenario simulation method of village land use layout, and explores the
possibility of village development under different development scenarios, so as to better provide
scientific and effective support and guidance for the future land use planning of villages.
First, the selected FLUS model is developed by Professor Liu Xiaoping team of Sun Yat-sen
University. The basic principle of FLUS model is to calculate the adaptive probability of various
types of land under various driving factors by artificial neural network algorithm, and then
combine the inertia coefficient and the wheel competition mechanism. Under the same driving
factors, the conversion matrix and conversion coefficient are set to simulate the land use layout
in the future research range. Therefore, according to the requirements of village land change,
the simulation model is adjusted and optimized to realize the land use simulation at the village
scale. Among them, the simulation parameters include cost matrix and neighborhood weight.
Cost matrix refers to the change rules between various land types, which is used to indicate
whether each land type is allowed to change with each other, and to some extent represents the
conversion relationship between various land types in the future. The neighborhood weight
refers to the expansion intensity of a certain type of land in the simulation process, which to
some extent represents the relationship between the strength of the change of various types of
land and the driving factors. The essence of the setting is to control the trend of the expansion
of various types of land to the surrounding in a simulation. Secondly, the introduction ofscenario planning method, not only fully respect the original background of the village, but also can effectively deal with the uncertainty of future
development direction. By adjusting the FLUS model simulation parameters, four scenarios of village development are set. Among them, the four
scenarios include natural development scenario, ecological priority scenario, industrial priority scenario and comprehensive development scenario.
The natural development scenario is the benchmark scenario to maintain the evolution of the village itself and compare with other development
scenarios. Ecological priority scenario for low development scenarios, protect the ecological environment, reduce development and construction; the
industrial priority scenario is the medium development scenario, emphasizing agricultural development and maintaining the ecological background;
comprehensive development scenario is high development scenario, strengthen development and construction, enrich the village industry.
At the same time, this paper takes Liangfengya Village, an agricultural-oriented village, as an example to carry out the simulation experiment.
Liangfengya Village is located in the middle of Banqiao Town, Yongchuan District, Chongqing City, which is obviously affected by urbanization,
and the population loss is serious. The agricultural and forestry land and water area in the village account for a large proportion, and have a good
ecological environment foundation and agricultural production foundation. Based on the multi-scenario simulation method of village land use layout
proposed in this paper, the land use simulation results of the village under different development scenarios are obtained by using the obtained land
use data of the third phase of Liangfengya Village, and the layout mode is further extracted. Through the graphical analysis of the scale proportion
of the land use structure of the simulation results, combined with the basic situation of the village and the urban development goals, the simulation
results under different scenarios are comprehensively evaluated and compared qualitatively and quantitatively, and the advantages and disadvantages
of the land use simulation results of Liangfengya Village in the planning period under different development scenarios are analyzed, so as to facilitate
the scientific selection of appropriate village development scenarios and guide the layout of village land use, so as to coordinate the relationship
between production, life and ecological space of Liangfengya Village, and promote the accuracy and intelligence of village planning. |
| Key words: Village Planning Land Use Multi-Scenario FLUS Model |
