| 摘要: |
| 目前，我国人口老龄化和少子化程度不
断加剧，常住人口城镇化速度减缓，如何保持
城市人口规模、实现合理的人口结构成为城市人
口发展的重要议题。本文以太原市为例，探讨人
口规模研究的新思路。在整合不同口径人口数
据基础上，梳理人口发展的现状和趋势，并采
用队列要素法推演太原市人口未来规模及其结
构，识别出在不加干预的情况下太原市将面临人
口萎缩、老龄化加剧和人口抚养比加重等一系
列人口问题的挑战。在此基础上，本文提出扭
转人口衰退危机、重返省内人口集聚中心、对标
中部发达省会城市发展步伐等三种情景下的人
口发展目标及途径，并据此提出更具针对性的
人口吸引政策、率先建设安心生育城市两方面行
动策略，期望为干预太原市人口发展趋势、探讨城市人口发展的可持续途径提供研究基础。本文研究结论也对不限于太原市的中国城市尤其是中
西部城市具有重要启示意义：第一，在人口自然增长和乡城人口迁移日趋衰微的背景下，此前普遍
增长的城市将因城市人口竞争加剧而出现分化；第二，吸引城际迁移人口的政策措施也不同于吸
引乡城迁移人口，需采取更加有助于个人发展和生活环境改善的政策；第三，面对日趋激烈的城市
人口竞争，城市更应注重本地人口的自然增长，积极探索生育友好政策的制定。 |
| 关键词: 人口转型 城镇化转型 人口挑战 人口策略 太原市 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20220316 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目（41971206） |
|
| The Challenges and Strategies of Population Development in Taiyuan City in the Era ofPopulation and Urbanization Transition |
|
MA Li,YIN Zhenxuan,LU Xigang,WANG De,WANG Jie
|
| Abstract: |
| In recent years, the trend of population development in China has changed
dramatically. The development of city population is faced with multiple difficulties caused by
the slowdown of population natural growth and rural-urban migration. On the one hand, the
birth rate is declining while aging population are increasing. China is about to enter the stage
of negative population growth. On the other hand, China has entered the middle and late stage
of urbanization. After the urbanization rate of permanent residents reached 60%, its growth
rate gradually slowed down, which means that the mainstream of population migration will
gradually transition from rural-urban to interurban migration. The forthcoming negative
population growth and stagnation of rural-urban migration make it more difficult for city to gain
net-migrants than ever. Since the size and composition of the population have a profound impact
on urban development and play an important role in the sustainable development of cities,
how to maintain the city population size and achieve a sustainable population composition has
become the focus of urban development. However, conventional population prediction mainly
based on trends extrapolation is no more sufficient to promote the sustainable development of
city population. As an important support for the territory development planning, the study of
population size should not only predict the population size under different scenarios, but also
actively explore the optimal composition, which is conducive to sustainable urban development.
Taking Taiyuan City as an example, this paper discusses the new ideas of population
size research, hoping to provide a research basis for exploring the way of sustainable urban
population development. Firstly, based on the integration of different population data, it is found
that Taiyuan, as a provincial capital city, has a relatively weak population attractiveness and
a large gap with other provincial capital cities in central China, reflecting the triple negative
effects of inland , resource-based and state-owned enterprise dominated cities. Secondly,
using cohort-component method to deduce the future size and composition of Taiyuan’spopulation, this paper identifies a series of population development problems with which Taiyuan City will be faced, such as population shrinking,
increasing aging and increasing population dependency ratio. These problems will weaken the ability of innovation, reduce the consumption level,
and eventually restrict the social and economic development of cities. In addition, the problem of population development is like a serious chronic
disease. On the one hand, it is gradually accumulated and slowly appeared rather than sudden outbreak. On the other hand, once the problem
appears, it is hard to adjust and solve in a short time. Therefore, if we do not deal with it early, the problem of population development will have a
huge and everlasting harm to the city. Thirdly, this paper puts forward the population development goals under different scenarios such as reversing
the population recession crisis, return to the provincial population gathering center and catching up with the development pace of other provincial
capitals in central China. In each case, we measure the population size needed to achieve the goal. Finally, we propose two action strategies:
enhancing the city’s population attractiveness and establishing a birth-friendly city, expecting to reach an ideal population development vision in
Taiyuan City through intervening in the population development trend.
Compared with traditional population research, this paper attempts to contribute in the following aspects. Firstly, by sorting out different population data,
population composition and development trend of Taiyuan City are clarified. Secondly, in the context of China’s population growth and urbanization turning point,
this paper uses cohort-component method to reveal population problems and challenges that may be faced in the future. These problems and challenges may have
manifested earlier in Taiyuan City, but they are not limited to Taiyuan City. Thirdly, beyond the trend extrapolation, this paper simultaneously reveals the population
size and composition needed to achieve different goals, and proposes targeted countermeasures.
The findings of current research also have implications as follows for other Chinese cities apart from Taiyuan, especially those located inland.
Firstly, with the forthcoming decreasing of population and stagnation of urbanization in China, divergency will emerge among cities, which were
once evergrowing. Due to exhausted rural migrant pool, a zero-sum game among cities is inevitable in terms of population attraction. Secondly,
since interurban migration will replace rural-urban migration, the relative attractive capability of city and its determinants will be very different.
In brief, interurban migrants pay more attention to personal development opportunity and amenity than rural migration, who usually focus in job
opportunity and income. Thus, the policy to prompt attractive capability of city should be revised correspondingly. Finally, it is just an expedient
measure for a city to attraction migrants at the price of others, the longterm countermeasure should embodied in population’s natural growth. It is
urgent for cities in China to monitor population natural growth and explore the birth-friendly policy. |
| Key words: Population Transition Urbanization Transition Population Challenges Population Strategies Taiyuan City |
