云南高质量发展与资源环境承载力耦合协调时空演变特
征及驱动因素分析

张春晓; 周龙进; 张萍; 瞿国寻

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云南高质量发展与资源环境承载力耦合协调时空演变特征及驱动因素分析
张春晓¹, 周龙进², 张萍³, 瞿国寻²
1.（通讯作者）：云南省国土资源规划设计研究院，高级工程师， chunxiaocn@163.com;2.云南省国土资源规划设计研究院，高级工程师;3.云南省地质调查院

摘要:

为揭示云南高质量发展与资源环境承载力耦合协调演变特征及驱动因素，助推高质量发展与资源环境协调。运用熵值-TOPSIS 模型、耦合协调度模型、空间自相关、随机森林等方法，分析了2010—2020 年云南高质量发展水平与资源环境承载力耦合协调空间格局演变特征及驱动因素。结果表明：第一，2010— 2020 年高质量发展和资源环境承载力耦合协调度由0.545 升至0.812，协调类型由勉强协调发展型升为高度协调发展型。第二，州市层面耦合协调关系类型处于较低水平类型。2010 年，仅有昆明为中级协调发展型，曲靖为濒临失调衰退型，其余14 个州市皆为中级失调衰退型。到2020 年，耦合协调类型等级提升主要集中在滇中地区，玉溪市、红河州提升为濒临失调衰退型，曲靖市改善为勉强协调发展型。到 2020 年各州市耦合协调度空间自相关程度增强，主要为高发展水平－高承载力型、低发展水平－低承载力型两种关系类型。第三，耦合协调度主要驱动因素来源于开放发展系统，其次是共享发展和环境承载力系统，各州市驱动因素呈现出明显的空间分异特征。

关键词: 高质量发展资源环境承载力空间格局时空分布云南

DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20240731001

分类号:

基金项目:

Analysis of spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of couplingbetween high quality development and resource and environmental carrying capacity inYunnan

ZHANG Chunxiao,ZHOU Longjin,ZHANG Ping,QU Guoxun

Abstract:

Coordinating the relationship between resource and environmental carrying capacity and economic development is a necessary measure for human beings to pursue sustainable development. With the rise of central Yunnan, the rapid development of northeast Yunnan, the opening development of Yunnan border and the comprehensive development of western Yunnan, the regional high-quality development spatial pattern has gradually formed. Around the coupling and coordination relationship between high-quality development and resource and environmental carrying capacity, Scientific measure the level of high quality development and the level of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Yunnan from 2010 to 2020, further reveal the evolution trend and driving factors of the spatial and temporal pattern of the two coupling and coordination relationship, to provide scientific decision-making basis for high-quality development of Yunnan and coordinated development of resources and environment, promote high-quality development and resource and environment coordination, using the entropy-topsis model, coupled coordination degree model, spatial autocorrelation, random forest and other methods. This paper analyzes the evolution characteristics and driving factors such as the comprehensive level of resource and environmental carrying capacity, the coupling and coordinated differentiation characteristics, the spatial distribution and the correlation mode of Yunnan in 2010 to 2020. The results show that: 1) from 2010 to 2020, the provincial high-quality development index increased from 0.300 to 0.575, and the resource and environmental carrying capacity index increased from 0.295 to 0.758, showing an overall upward trend. 2) From2010 to 2020, the coupled coordination degree of high-quality development and resource and environmental carrying capacity will increase from 0.545 to 0.812, and the coordination type will rise from barely coordinated to highly coordinated development. 3) The type of coupling coordination at the city level is at a low level. In 2010, only Kunming was in the intermediate and coordinated development type, Qujing was on the verge of disorder and decline type, and the other 14 cities were all in the intermediate disorder and decline type. By 2020, the level of coupling coordination will be mainly improved in central Yunnan, Yuxi and Honghe Prefecture will be upgraded to the verge of disorder and decline, and Qujing will be improved to barely coordinated development. 4) The spatial distribution of coupling coordination degree is different in different years. From 2010 to 2015, there was only one high value cluster area, mainly distributed in Kunming and Qujing, and the high/low value aggregation in other states and cities was not significant. By 2020, there is a significant spatial heterogeneity, with one high value cluster area and one low value cluster area. Among them, the high-value cluster areas are mainly distributed in the central Yunnan province, including Kunming, Qujing, Yuxi and other regional units. The low-value anomaly area is distributed in Dali Prefecture in western Yunnan Province.5)From 2010 to 2020, the spatial autocorrelation degree of coupling and coordination was enhanced, mainly between high development level-high bearing capacity and low development level-low bearing capacity. Kunming regional high development level-high bearing capacity type, Zhaotong regional low development level-low bearing capacity type is relatively stable. In 2010, Kunming region was high development level-high bearing capacity, low development level-low bearing capacity is mainly distributed in Zhaotong, Qujing, Honghe, Wenshan and other regional units, while other cities were not significant. In 2015, the regional distribution of high development level-high bearing capacity was stable in Kunming, while the distribution range of low development levellow bearing capacity was decreased, mainly distributed in Zhaotong, Qujing, Honghe and other regional units, while the other cities and cities were not significant. In 2020, the high development level of distribution-high bearing capacity greatly expanded, including Kunming, Qujing, Honghe, reflects the high quality development level. 6) Support high quality development and resources and environment bearing capacity of the variables of coupling coordinate the main driving factors for tourism foreign exchange income (x20), per capita GDP (x21), sewage treatment (x51), tourism revenue (x19), mainly comes from the open development system, followed by Shared development and environmental bearing capacity system, drivers present obvious spatial differentiation characteristics. From the point of unit, Kunming, Yuxi Zhaotong, Honghe, Wenshan, Dehong prefecture, pu’er region of high quality development and resources and environmental bearing capacity coupling coordination factors mainly comes from resource bearing capacity system, Qujing, Chuxiong, Nujiang, Diqing, Baoshan and other areas of high quality development and resource and environment bearing capacity coupling coordination factors mainly comes from environmental bearing capacity system, Lijiang, Lincang, Dali prefecture, Xishuangbanna high quality development and resources and environmental bearing capacity coupling coordination factors mainly comes from the open development system. With the obvious spatial differentiation of driving factors and the gradient change of main driving factors, open development and shared development drive the high-quality development of the province; environmental carrying capacity plays an important supporting role and further promotes the coordinated development of high-quality development and resource and environmental carrying capacity.

Key words: high-quality development resource and environment carrying capacity spatial framework spatial and temporal distribution Yunnan.