| 摘要: |
| 研究从经济韧性、社会韧性、基
础设施韧性以及生态韧性4 个方面出发构建
长三角地区城市韧性评价指标体系，运用
熵权-TOPSIS 评价模型、探索性时空数据分
析及障碍度模型，对长三角地区2010—2021
年城市韧性水平进行测度，分析其时空演进
特征并识别其障碍因子。研究发现：2010—
2021 年长三角地区城市韧性水平呈现出波动
上升趋势，存在明显的多极分布特征。城市
韧性水平在空间上呈现出西北低、东南高的
不均衡分布特征，并具有较强的集聚特征。
除此之外，长三角地区城市韧性存在“路径
依赖”特征，提升城市韧性水平存在较大难
度。生态韧性、基础设施韧性是影响长三角
地区城市韧性的主要障碍，此外，地区内各
地市障碍因子之间存在较为明显的差别。 |
| 关键词: 城市韧性 障碍因子 TOPSIS 时
空交互 长三角地区 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.2023111601 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:辽东学院博士启动资金项目（2024-BS-038）；国家自然科学基金项目（42201221）；辽宁省经济社会发展研究一般课题（2025lslybwzzkt-167）；辽宁师范大
学校高端培育项目（25GDW001） |
|
| Spatial and temporal evolution of urban resilience and identification of obstacle factors inYangtze River Delta region |
|
LIU Jianjun,TIAN Shenzhen,YANFG Junyan,LIU He,LI Hongchuan
|
| Abstract: |
| This study focuses on the resilient development of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region.
Starting from the four core dimensions of economic resilience, social resilience, infrastructure
resilience, and ecological resilience, a multi-dimensional and multi-level evaluation index system for
urban resilience has been systematically established. The entropy weight-TOPSIS evaluation model,
exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis, and obstacle degree model have been employed. The
resilience level of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2010 to 2021 was measured to deeply
explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and identify the key obstacle factors restricting
the improvement of resilience, providing a scientific basis for the coordinated development of urban
resilience in the region. It’s found that based on the characteristics of time evolution, the overall
resilience level of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region showed a fluctuating upward trend from
2010 to 2021, and the extreme value of urban resilience also showed a continuous growth trend. This
indicates that although the overall development level of resilience in each city within the Yangtze
River Delta region has always shown a positive development trend. However, there are still obvious
multi-polar distribution characteristics in the resilience levels of various cities within the region. From
the spatial evolution characteristics, it can be seen that there are significant spatial differences in the
resilience levels of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2010 to 2021. Overall, it shows an
unbalanced distribution feature of “low in the northwest and high in the southeast”, and has a strong
agglomeration feature. Specifically, cities with relatively high resilience levels are mainly
concentrated in two core areas: one is the economic belt along the Shanghai-Nanjing Line, starting
from Hefei, passing through Nanjing, Changzhou, Wuxi, Suzhou and ending in Shanghai; the other is
the urban belt along the Hangzhou Bay, with Hangzhou and Ningbo as the core, radiating to cities
such as Shaoxing, Jiaxing and Zhoushan. In contrast, cities with lower resilience levels are mainly
distributed in the northern part of Anhui Province (Suzhou, Suqian, Huainan, and Huaibei), but the
resilience levels of each city still show varying degrees of upward trends. It is worth noting that
during the research period, the spatial structure of the urban resilience level in the Yangtze River Delta
region had certain variability characteristics, and this variability characteristic generally showed a
trend of “gradually increasing from north to south”. Among them, cities with relatively high urban
resilience levels and lengths are mainly located in the southern part of Zhejiang, the southern part of
Jiangsu, and the central part of Anhui, while cities with relatively low lengths are mainly distributed
in the southern and northern parts of Anhui and the central and northern parts of Jiangsu. In addition,
the resilience of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region also shows a distinct “path dependence”
feature. Data shows that 41.69% of cities are in the “LL” spatial form, meaning that their ownresilience levels are relatively low, and the resilience levels of surrounding cities are also low. This prominent phenomenon of low-value agglomeration
indicates that although there is still considerable room for improvement in the overall resilience level of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region, it is still quite
difficult to break the “low-value lock-in” pattern and achieve balanced development throughout the region. Based on the identification of obstacle factors, the
ranking of the average obstacle degree of the first-level indicator of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2010 to 2021 is: ecological
resilience > infrastructure resilience > economic resilience > social resilience, indicating that ecological resilience and infrastructure resilience are the core
obstacles restricting the overall improvement of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta region. This is specifically reflected in indicators such as the density
of urban drainage pipes (X23) and the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste (X27). From the perspective of the trend of time changes, the
obstacle degrees of the four first-level indicators show differentiated characteristics: only the obstacle degree of ecological resilience shows an overall
downward trend, while the obstacle degrees of infrastructure resilience, economic resilience and social resilience all show an upward trend, indicating that the
impact of infrastructure resilience, economic resilience and social resilience on the development of urban resilience is becoming increasingly significant. In
addition, there are also obvious regional differences in the obstacle factors among various cities within the triangular area. The city-level differences in the
inhibitory effects of infrastructure resilience and ecological resilience on enhancing urban resilience levels are relatively obvious, while the city-level
differences in the inhibitory effects of social resilience and economic resilience on enhancing urban resilience levels are relatively small. |
| Key words: urban resilience obstacle factor TOPSIS space-time interaction Yangtze River Delta region |
