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人口流失地区就地城镇化特征与影响因素研究 ——以四川省典型县域为例
彭 航1, 杨 春2, 赖文韬3, 谭少华4, 杨小乐5
1.( 通讯作者):中国建筑西南设计研究院,助 理工程师,cqu-hang@foxmail.com;2.清华大学建筑学院,助理研究员;3.成都市规划设计研究院,助理工程师;4.重庆大学建筑城规学院,教授,博士生 导师;5.重庆大学建筑城规学院,硕士研究生
摘要:
探讨人口流失地区的就地城镇化特征 与影响因素,对于推动形成“以县城为重要载体 的就地城镇化模式”具有重要参考意义。文章 以四川省72个县域单元为研究范围,以典型个 例——岳池县的留守农民调查数据为支撑,运用 多元逻辑回归分析,从个人、家庭、生产生活、 养老和教育4个层次分析留守农民的不同居住 地域迁移意愿和影响因素。研究发现:一、与其 他地区不同,人口流失地区城镇化在空间-经济- 人口3个层面分异明显,近40%的留守农民有城 镇化倾向,迁移意愿和偏好强度依次为县城> 大城市>地级市>小城镇;二、就地城镇化影 响因素呈现“轻生产、重生活”特征,即不以收入、就业为首要导向,而是将家庭养老和子女教育视为就地城镇化的决定性因素。最后,基于此 提出构建完善的城乡教育与养老服务体系,并积极探索内生型城镇化发展路径的政策建议。
关键词:  就地城镇化  人口流失地区  县域  城镇化意愿  影响因素
DOI:10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20240320
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFD1100300)
Study on the characteristics and influencing factors of local urbanization in population lossareas
PENG Hang,YANG Chun,LAI Wentao,Tan Shaohua,YANG Xiao le
Abstract:
Since China’s economic reforms and opening up, numerous workers from the central and western regions have migrated to the more economically developed eastern areas for job opportunities and temporary settlements. Nevertheless, this traditional urbanization pattern, characterized by migration to different locales, has given rise to societal challenges, notably the “left-behind phenomenon” and “population loss”. To tackle these issues and others stemming from urbanization in depopulating regions, such as weak industries, inadequate infrastructure, and limited public services, the Chinese Communist Party Office and the State Council issued the “Opinions on Promoting Urbanization Construction with Counties as Important Carriers” in May 2022. This landmark document introduced the concept of “population-losing counties” and emphasized the need to “promote moderate population and public service resource concentration, strengthening people’s livelihood security and assistance”, while advocating for high-quality, county-focused urbanization. This new approach has garnered significant academic interest. Evidently, China’s urbanization rate still has considerable room for improvement in the long term. In-situ urbanization plays a crucial role in preventing and addressing both urban and rural issues. This paper encompasses 72 county-level population loss units in Sichuan Province, leveraging survey data from residents left behind in Yuechi County, a notable population-losing county. Utilizing multivariate logistic regression analysis, it examines the willingness of these left-behind residents to relocate and the influencing factors at the individual, familial, production and lifestyle, pension, and education levels. Initially focusing on representative counties in Sichuan, the findings indicate that while the urbanization level in population-losing counties remains low, the growth rate is substantial and positively correlated with the scale of population outflow. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that with significant population outflows, the local populace increasingly consists of children and the elderly. The declining labor market and the escalating overall dependency ratio have become foundational aspects of county urbanization. Building on this backdrop, this paper reaches the following conclusions: 1) Urbanization in depopulating areas exhibits notable differentiation at the spatial, economic, and demographic levels. Approximately 40% of the left-behind residents express a proclivity towards urbanization, with their migration preferences ordered as counties, major cities, prefecture-level cities, and then small towns. 2) Factors influencing local urbanization tend to prioritize lifestyle over production, implying that diverse individual and familial traits impact residents’ urbanization choices, while limited work opportunities exert minimal influence. Family pensions and children’s education emerge as pivotal determinants of local urbanization decisions. It proposes the following strategies: Firstly, in alignment with the national “14th Five-YearPlan” for public service planning, counties in depopulating areas should moderately centralize public services and resources in cities. This approach aims to enhance the quality of public services like education and healthcare in townships and improve the local workforce structure and labor quality. Secondly, it is imperative to foster county economies and key industries, expanding local employment prospects and exploring endogenous urbanization pathways driven by local industries. Lastly, strengthening the county-level urban-rural pension service and security systems is crucial to bolster the sense of security among rural elders. Looking ahead, it must adapt to the aging trends in China’s counties, bolstering urban-rural pension services and land security planning. This involves providing planning guidance and policy support for rural individuals transitioning to urban retirement living and fostering the growth of the rural pension industry.
Key words:  local urbanization  areas with population loss  county territory  urbanization will  influencing factor