| 摘要: |
| 近年来热浪已成为危害城市公共卫生安
全的极端天气事件之一，通过气候情景预测掌握
未来热浪风险的时空格局，是保证气候适应性策
略前瞻性和科学性的重要途径。基于中尺度气象
模型（Weather Research and Forecasting model，
WRF）对大连城市气候远景预测（2041—2050
年）的结果，将研究区域进行热浪风险评估并提
出气候适应性策略。结果表明高风险区出现在甘
井子区东北部、西岗区北部、沙河口区北部、中
山区北部以及金州区中部。基于风险分区气候适
应性策略分为两大类：总体策略和分区策略。总
体策略包括城市“冷岛”保护和高温避灾场所策
略。分区策略则主要针中高风险区展开，重点将高风险区划分为三类策略区，并明确指出气候适应
性策略的优先行动区。 |
| 关键词: 热浪风险 远景预测 气候适应性策略 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20230108 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费项目（DUT21RW204）；国家
社会科学基金（18BGL233）；中国博士后科学基金第72
批面上基金（2022M720642） |
|
| Heatwave Projections (2050s) and Adaptive Planning Strategies based on MesoscaleMeteorological Model for Dalian |
|
GUO Fei,ZHAO Jun,DONG Jing,WANG Shiyuan,NAN Pengfei,ZHANG Hongchi
|
| Abstract: |
| Heatwaves have become one of the extreme weather events that endanger public health and
safety in cities. Currently, climate scenario projections to capture the spatial and temporal patterns
of future heatwave risk are important ways to ensure that climate adaptation strategies are forward-
looking and scientific. Furthermore, heat-related mortality in cold regions is likely to increase
significantly due to the lack of experiences in heatwave management. For these reasons, this study
uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for future long-term projections (2041-2050)
in Dalian, a city in a cold region, as an example of a heatwave risk assessment for the study area. It’s
expected taht the study will provide a reference case for the development of adaptation strategies for
heatwave events in other cold regions.
This study is divided into three steps: 1) the WRF was used to make climate projections
for the long term (2041-2050); 2) the spatial distribution of heatwave exposure was calculated; 3)
the adaptation planning strategy based on the results of the study was developed. The prediction
experiments are divided into two groups: Test1 is a time-by-time simulation of a typical month
of the current meteorological year (2005) and the simulation results are compared with weather
station observations to verify the accuracy of the WRF model; Test2 is a time-by-time prediction of
temperature for a typical meteorological month from 2041 to 2050. August was chosen as the typical
meteorological month, which has the highest temperatures and high frequency of heatwave.
The results of Test1 showed a correlation value of up to 0.9 between the simulated and measured data,
and the correctness of the WRF model was demonstrated. The results of Test2 were tabulated using GIS to
obtain the number of heatwave days and the average temperature during the heatwave for August from 2041
to 2050. The average temperature increase in August in summer over the last 50 years in Dalian shows a clear
linear trend, with an overall upward trend. The results show that 81 days during the forecast interval are under
the heatwave, with a decreasing-rising-decreasing trend in the duration of the heatwave. During the heatwave,
average temperatures in the mountains around the built-up area are around 28 °C, with temperatures as low
as 27 °C in the southern coastal areas. Overall, heatwave events were mainly concentrated in the core area,
increasing along the edges of the mountains and coastline towards the built-up area.
According to the prediction results, this study counted the land use types within the city based
on the Code for Classification of Urban Land Use and Planning Standards of Development Land,
combined with the natural breakpoint method in GIS to classify the temperature classes, and the
central urban area was divided into three risk zones: high, medium and low. The results show that
the risk level of heatwaves in Dalian city shows a distribution characteristic of “high inside and low
outside”, with high risk areas in the northeast of Ganjingzi District, the north of Xigang District,the north of Shahekou District, the north of Zhongshan District and the north of Jinzhou District. The medium-risk areas are located in the western part of
Ganjingzi District, the built-up area of Lv shunkou District, the central and southern part of Shahekou District, the northern part of Xigang District and the
central part of Jinzhou District. The low-risk areas are mainly found in urban green parks and non-built-up areas.
The climate adaptation strategies based on heat wave risk zoning were mainly divided into two categories: overall strategy and zoning strategy.
The overall strategy includes urban “cold island” protection and high temperature disaster shelter strategies. The urban “cold island” zone includes large
urban green spaces such as the Dalian West Suburb National Forest Park, which has a role in regulating the urban climate and mitigating the urban heat
island effect. It is recommended to delimit non-construction and limited construction areas in the surrounding areas to restrict the type of land use in the
“cold island” zone”, and to prohibit industrial plants and other building types that emit large amounts of pollutants and heat. Emergency relief shelters are
divided into two types: indoor and outdoor, with indoor shelters using existing large public buildings (such as museums, libraries, shopping malls, financial
institutions, etc.). Outdoor shelters are set up in conjunction with parks, green spaces, transport facilities, etc. The zoning strategy is based on medium and
high risk zones: the high risk zone is subdivided into three strategic zones and priority action zones are defined, mainly from the control of urban spatial
form, substrate material and three-dimensional greening measures to reduce the impact of heatwave risk; for the medium risk zone should control the
intensity of development and construction to reduce its potential climate risk, while controlling the combination of building forms to make full use of the
cooling effect of sea breeze. |
| Key words: Heatwave Risks Long-term Projections Climate Adaptive Strategies |
