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县级国土空间碳减排能力测度及障碍度分析 ——以长三角生态绿色一体化示范区为例
刘宇舒1, 林 芳2, 孙 玥3, 朱礼凯2
1.( 通讯作者):苏州科技大学建筑与城市 规划学院,副教授,964946822@qq.com;2.苏州科技大学建筑与城市规划学院,硕 士研究生;3.哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院,博士研究生
摘要:
县级国土空间具有“减排”和“增汇” 的双重属性,对于实现我国“双碳”目标意义重 大。文章研究聚焦县级空间单元,以吴江区、嘉 善县和青浦区为对象,构建包含经济支撑能力、 能源消耗与碳排放能力、结构调整能力、技术改 善能力、社会发展能力和碳汇吸收能力6个目标 的碳减排能力评价指标体系。进而,以2010— 2020年的数据为计算样本,综合运用熵权法、 灰色关联分析法,耦合协调度和障碍度分析模 型,计算碳减排能力指数、协调发展指数以及障 碍因子,分析其时空分异特征与发展规律,以明 确两区一县碳减排能力提升的重要方向与主要症结,为长三角生态绿色一体化示范区减碳治理与 生态文明建设提供参考。
关键词:  碳减排能力  耦合协调度  障碍度  县级国土空间  碳中和
DOI:10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20230102
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目(51908390);江苏高校优势 学科建设工程三期工程资助项目;江苏省“双创计划” 资助项目
Measurement and Obstacle Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Capability of County-Level Territorial Spatial Planning: A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta Ecological GreenIntegration Demonstration Area
LIU Yushu,LIN Fang,SUN Yue,ZHU Likai
Abstract:
County-level territorial spatial planning has the dual properties of “emission reduction” and “increase of foreign exchange”, which is of great significance to the realization of China’s “dual- carbon” goal. This paper focuses on county-level spatial units, taking Wujiang District, Jiashan County and Qingpu District as objects, and constructing the measurement index system of carbon emission reduction ability, which includes six object levels: economic support ability, energy consumption and carbon emission ability, structural adjustment ability, technological improvement ability, social development ability and carbon sink absorption ability. The economic support capacity includes the living standard of regional residents, regional economic capacity, regional urban residents economic capacity, regional rural residents economic capacity and the government’s investment in carbon emission reduction. Energy consumption and carbon emission capacity include the evaluation indexes of energy utilization economic benefit, carbon production efficiency, regional per capita energy consumption level and regional per capita carbon emission level, etc. Structural adjustment ability includes the regional industrial structure upgrading ability, regional dependence on industry, energy consumption and carbon emission efficiency, energy supply structure and energy optimization level and other indicators. Technology improvement capacity includes the ability of low-carbon technology, the strength of supporting technological innovation, the level of international technology introduction and the ability to transfer carbon emissions and other indicators. Social development capacity includes the ability to realize low-carbon lifestyle, urban transportation capacity, regional bus travel capacity, residents’ living power consumption, residents’ living water consumption and regional education quality, etc. The carbon sink absorption capacity includes forest carbon sink capacity, urban green space carbon sink, carbon sink development potential and park carbon sink capacity. Then, the data from 2010 to 2020 is taken as the calculation sample, and the carbon emission index is estimated by using the carbon emission coefficient method through the energy consumption of industry, transportation and electricity. Then, entropy weight method, grey correlation analysis method, coupled coordination degree and obstacle degree analysis model were used to calculate the carbon emission reduction ability index, coordinated development index and obstacle factor. As can be seen from the results of the carbon emission reduction ability index, the change interval of the carbon emission reduction ability index over the years is relatively small, the overall carbon emission reduction ability level of the demonstration area is not high, QingpuDistrict is slightly higher than the other two county-level units, and shows a trend of gradual development to a good level. As can be seen from the results of coordinated development index, the coordinated development of the demonstration areas is at a medium level, indicating that the development of each system in the demonstration areas is not balanced, and there are obvious weaknesses. The coordinated development index of Wujiang District is the highest, and the changes are relatively stable over the years, but the overall level of six-dimensional ability is not good, indicating that the system is relatively coordinated at a low level. Carbon sink absorption capacity, energy consumption and carbon emission capacity, and technology improvement capacity are strong dimensions that affect regional carbon emission reduction capacity. The coordinated development index of Jiashan County is in the middle, with little fluctuation. Economic support capacity and social development capacity are the strong dimensions affecting the regional carbon emission reduction capacity. The economic support capacity dimension has a significant growth rate and obvious comparative advantage since 2017. The coordinated development index of Qingpu District was the lowest, but the overall trend was stable. Meanwhile, its carbon emission reduction ability ranked the first in the whole region, indicating that it was evolving towards high-level coordinated development. The carbon sink absorption capacity and structural adjustment capacity are always significantly higher than the other two regions, and relatively stable in the past year. Social development capacity and energy consumption and carbon emission capacity are the main factors restricting regional carbon emission capacity, and technological improvement capacity changes the most. As can be seen from the obstacle factor results, Wujiang District has six absolute obstacle factors, which are relatively concentrated. Except the per capita green area of the park, they are all distributed in the dimensions of energy consumption, carbon emission capacity and technological improvement ability, while Jiashan County and Qingpu District are relatively dispersed. The absolute obstacle factors of Jiashan County include the proportion of regional GDP in the national GDP, the proportion of tertiary industry added value in GDP, the proportion of regional technology market turnover in GDP, the proportion of import and export trade in GDP and the ratio of teachers and students in primary and secondary schools. The influence degree of absolute obstacle factors is relatively balanced and the change range over the years is small, indicating that the key factors affecting its carbon emission capacity are relatively stable. The most serious absolute obstacle factor in Qingpu District over the years is the per capita green area of the park, and the proportion of clean energy power generation in the total power generation has always maintained a high impact, with small range fluctuation. The fluctuation barrier factor deserves attention, and its sensitivity to change can be used as an effective index to test the effect of carbon reduction actions or measures. The analysis results identified the important direction and main crux of carbon emission reduction capacity improvement, and provided a reference for the Yangtze River Delta eco-green integration demonstration zone carbon reduction governance and ecological civilization construction.
Key words:  Carbon Emission Reduction Capacity  Coupling Coordination Degree  Obstacle Degree  County-Level Territorial Spatial Planning  Carbon Neutrality