| 摘要: |
| 县级国土空间具有“减排”和“增汇”
的双重属性，对于实现我国“双碳”目标意义重
大。文章研究聚焦县级空间单元，以吴江区、嘉
善县和青浦区为对象，构建包含经济支撑能力、
能源消耗与碳排放能力、结构调整能力、技术改
善能力、社会发展能力和碳汇吸收能力6个目标
的碳减排能力评价指标体系。进而，以2010—
2020年的数据为计算样本，综合运用熵权法、
灰色关联分析法，耦合协调度和障碍度分析模
型，计算碳减排能力指数、协调发展指数以及障
碍因子，分析其时空分异特征与发展规律，以明
确两区一县碳减排能力提升的重要方向与主要症结，为长三角生态绿色一体化示范区减碳治理与
生态文明建设提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 碳减排能力 耦合协调度 障碍度 县级国土空间 碳中和 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20230102 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目(51908390)；江苏高校优势
学科建设工程三期工程资助项目；江苏省“双创计划”
资助项目 |
|
| Measurement and Obstacle Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Capability of County-Level Territorial Spatial Planning: A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta Ecological GreenIntegration Demonstration Area |
|
LIU Yushu,LIN Fang,SUN Yue,ZHU Likai
|
| Abstract: |
| County-level territorial spatial planning has the dual properties of “emission reduction”
and “increase of foreign exchange”, which is of great significance to the realization of China’s “dual-
carbon” goal. This paper focuses on county-level spatial units, taking Wujiang District, Jiashan
County and Qingpu District as objects, and constructing the measurement index system of carbon
emission reduction ability, which includes six object levels: economic support ability, energy
consumption and carbon emission ability, structural adjustment ability, technological improvement
ability, social development ability and carbon sink absorption ability. The economic support
capacity includes the living standard of regional residents, regional economic capacity, regional
urban residents economic capacity, regional rural residents economic capacity and the government’s
investment in carbon emission reduction. Energy consumption and carbon emission capacity include
the evaluation indexes of energy utilization economic benefit, carbon production efficiency, regional
per capita energy consumption level and regional per capita carbon emission level, etc. Structural
adjustment ability includes the regional industrial structure upgrading ability, regional dependence
on industry, energy consumption and carbon emission efficiency, energy supply structure and energy
optimization level and other indicators. Technology improvement capacity includes the ability of
low-carbon technology, the strength of supporting technological innovation, the level of international
technology introduction and the ability to transfer carbon emissions and other indicators. Social
development capacity includes the ability to realize low-carbon lifestyle, urban transportation
capacity, regional bus travel capacity, residents’ living power consumption, residents’ living water
consumption and regional education quality, etc. The carbon sink absorption capacity includes
forest carbon sink capacity, urban green space carbon sink, carbon sink development potential and
park carbon sink capacity. Then, the data from 2010 to 2020 is taken as the calculation sample, and
the carbon emission index is estimated by using the carbon emission coefficient method through
the energy consumption of industry, transportation and electricity. Then, entropy weight method,
grey correlation analysis method, coupled coordination degree and obstacle degree analysis model
were used to calculate the carbon emission reduction ability index, coordinated development index
and obstacle factor. As can be seen from the results of the carbon emission reduction ability index,
the change interval of the carbon emission reduction ability index over the years is relatively small,
the overall carbon emission reduction ability level of the demonstration area is not high, QingpuDistrict is slightly higher than the other two county-level units, and shows a trend of gradual development to a good level. As can be seen from the results
of coordinated development index, the coordinated development of the demonstration areas is at a medium level, indicating that the development of each
system in the demonstration areas is not balanced, and there are obvious weaknesses. The coordinated development index of Wujiang District is the highest,
and the changes are relatively stable over the years, but the overall level of six-dimensional ability is not good, indicating that the system is relatively
coordinated at a low level. Carbon sink absorption capacity, energy consumption and carbon emission capacity, and technology improvement capacity are
strong dimensions that affect regional carbon emission reduction capacity. The coordinated development index of Jiashan County is in the middle, with little
fluctuation. Economic support capacity and social development capacity are the strong dimensions affecting the regional carbon emission reduction capacity.
The economic support capacity dimension has a significant growth rate and obvious comparative advantage since 2017. The coordinated development index
of Qingpu District was the lowest, but the overall trend was stable. Meanwhile, its carbon emission reduction ability ranked the first in the whole region,
indicating that it was evolving towards high-level coordinated development. The carbon sink absorption capacity and structural adjustment capacity are
always significantly higher than the other two regions, and relatively stable in the past year. Social development capacity and energy consumption and carbon
emission capacity are the main factors restricting regional carbon emission capacity, and technological improvement capacity changes the most. As can be
seen from the obstacle factor results, Wujiang District has six absolute obstacle factors, which are relatively concentrated. Except the per capita green area of
the park, they are all distributed in the dimensions of energy consumption, carbon emission capacity and technological improvement ability, while Jiashan
County and Qingpu District are relatively dispersed. The absolute obstacle factors of Jiashan County include the proportion of regional GDP in the national
GDP, the proportion of tertiary industry added value in GDP, the proportion of regional technology market turnover in GDP, the proportion of import and
export trade in GDP and the ratio of teachers and students in primary and secondary schools. The influence degree of absolute obstacle factors is relatively
balanced and the change range over the years is small, indicating that the key factors affecting its carbon emission capacity are relatively stable. The most
serious absolute obstacle factor in Qingpu District over the years is the per capita green area of the park, and the proportion of clean energy power generation
in the total power generation has always maintained a high impact, with small range fluctuation. The fluctuation barrier factor deserves attention, and its
sensitivity to change can be used as an effective index to test the effect of carbon reduction actions or measures. The analysis results identified the important
direction and main crux of carbon emission reduction capacity improvement, and provided a reference for the Yangtze River Delta eco-green integration
demonstration zone carbon reduction governance and ecological civilization construction. |
| Key words: Carbon Emission Reduction Capacity Coupling Coordination Degree Obstacle Degree County-Level Territorial Spatial Planning Carbon
Neutrality |
