| 摘要: |
| 灾后恢复期是实现提升社区灾害韧
性的好机会，然而重建的速度和质量的权衡
是一个挑战。以2018年迈克尔飓风侵袭后的
美国佛罗里达墨西哥海滩市为例，本研究基
于灾后不同时期街景数据来评估不同重建策
略对房屋重建速度和房屋出售率的影响，为
灾后恢复评估和规划提供了新方法。具体而
言，通过使用OLS模型和Logit模型灾后规划
提出的韧性提升策略，本研究发现：建筑抬
升条例显著地减缓了灾后恢复并且增加了房
屋转手销售的几率，然而风荷载加强条例和
灾后恢复速度与房屋销售行为之间没有显著
的关联。此外，基于街景数据的研究结论对
认识灾后重建策略具有参考价值。 |
| 关键词: 韧性灾后规划 恢复速度 速度和
质量 房屋销售 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20220102 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| The Impact of Post-Hurricane Recovery Strategy on House Recovery Based On GoogleStreet View Image: Taking Hurricane Michael in Florida in 2018 as the Example |
|
ZHAI Wei,YUE Haoyu,BAI Xueyin
|
| Abstract: |
| Postdisaster recovery inevitably involves the tension between speed and quality,
which are the two sides of postdisaster recovery. On one hand, speed is the key to ensure local
businesses alive and provide short-term and long-term housing for residents and victims. For
instance, if it takes two decades for a community to build back, residents and victims may
have migrated to other cities. On the other hand, even though expediting recovery is important,
it is necessary to spend more time carefully arranging the postdisaster reconstruction. If the
community recovers very fast, it may imply that there are not adequate discussions with
stakeholders. Specifically, if the local government aims to reduce risk and rebuild homes shortly
after the disaster, the urgent pressure can result in ineffective planning, the unexpected increasing
long-term vulnerability of damaged areas. That is to say, planning can offer opportunities to
enhance the quality of the land use plan and infrastructures, and cooperate with citizens in the
rebuilding process. However, if the strategy costs lots of time and money to be implemented,
the planning may not work effectively. In this work, it summarizes the dilemma as “speed vs.
quality”.
Despite the importance of the trade-off between speed and quality, it has not been
quantitatively examined in previous studies. More specifically, even though the speed and
deliberation issue has been discussed theoretically and qualitatively examined on the city or
regional level, the problem has not been examined on the parcel level. Specifically, researchers
have developed the concept of “time compression” to theorize how the time-compressed
environment distorts the recovery quality from the perspective of capital services. However, the
theory has not been empirically demonstrated yet. In addition, researchers have qualitatively
examined the tension of “speed vs. quality” based on interviews for postdisaster recovery in
Japan and Turkey and analyzed the phenomena on a macro level. However, the results indeed are
not explicitly enough for guiding the neighborhood recovery, which needs more specific guidance
of parcel-level projects.
In specific, the parcel-level recovery knowledge matters for planners in terms of recovery
planning and land use planning. For instance, a fundamental question is what type of residential structures will benefit from the resilient strategy, since different types of residential structures, such as single-family homes, multi-family homes,
condominiums, and so on, have complicated ownership and structure patterns. Those differences can result in distinctive recovery and rebuilding
of decision processes. The major reason that previous studies failed to specify the problem on a fine scale is that recovery progress is difficult to be
quantified on the parcel level. In addition, regarding the negative effects of planning for recovery, previous studies largely focus on the time used
for planning and policymaking. It defines the time used for developing a post-disaster recovery plan as a direct and absolute impact on the housing
recovery. However, the indirect impact, such as implementing the resilience strategy in post-disaster reconstruction, has not been explored. It defines it
as a type of indirect impact since the reconstruction delay cannot be measured directly.
Therefore, the purpose of this research is to fill these gaps by examining two topics: the impacts of resilience strategies on the housing recovery
speed and impacts of resilience strategies on the home sale behavior. Specifically, it would employ Mexico Beach, FL as a study area to examine
the effects of local planning on recovery progress. Hurricane Michael, as a Category 5 hurricane, made landfall in northwest Florida on October 10,
2018. Mexico Beach was totally wiped out due to the strong wind and storm surge. For recovery, the city council and planning agency developed two
resilience strategies to make the community more resilient: elevation ordinance and wind-load ordinance. Using Mexico Beach as a case study, it firstly
employed street view images to quantify the parcel level damage and recovery. Next, it aims to understand the effectiveness of resilience strategy in
terms of reducing damage in a natural disaster event.
The result indicates that the resilience strategy would partially slow the recovery progress. In this case, elevating houses may slow the
reconstruction speed whereas wind load strategy does not make a difference. This pattern also applies to home sale behavior. That is, if the property
is required to be elevated in the reconstruction phase, the odds of the property being sold would increase. These findings are consistent with the
“speed vs. quality” issue it stated in the very beginning. By filling the gaps stated earlier, the contribution of this research relies on two aspects: (1) It
introduced an approach to examine the “speed vs. quality” problem on the parcel level; (2) It demonstrated that the “speed vs. quality” could happen
when the resilience strategy is applied for post-disaster reconstruction. |
| Key words: Post-disaster Resilience Planning Recovery Speed Speed vs. Quality House Sale |
