| 摘要: |
| 拉萨市地处高寒地区，自身生态环
境脆弱，文章通过改进的三维生态足迹模型
测度拉萨市2009—2018年自然资本的动态变
化，并用偏最小二乘回归法对变化的驱动因
素进行分析，为拉萨市正确处理资源利用与
经济社会发展之间的关系提供科学依据。结
果表明：一、2009—2018年，拉萨市人均生
态足迹呈先下降后波动上升的变化趋势，人
均生态承载力持续下降，拉萨市自然资本供
需矛盾增加，逐渐由盈转亏；二、足迹深度与
足迹广度表明流量资本已经无法满足生产生
活需求，拉萨市发展对存量资本的依赖性增
强；三、从用地类型来看，草地、水域与建筑
用地处于流量资本占用状态，耕地是资本存
量消耗的主要方式，林地处于两者之间的过
渡阶段；四、社会投资、消费水平以及产业结
构中的第三产业发展对自然资本的利用有显
著的驱动作用。 |
| 关键词: 三维生态足迹 自然资本利用 偏最小二乘法 驱动因素 拉萨市 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20210311 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:2016年度国家社科基金重大招标项目（16ZDA135） |
|
| Dynamic Evaluation and Driving Factors of Natural Capital in High-Frigid EcologicalVulnerable Region: A Case of Lhasa |
|
YANG Dan,ZHOU Bo,CHENG Shouming
|
| Abstract: |
| Ecological civilization construction and ecological environment protection in alpine ecologically
fragile areas have long been the focus of national and local government departments. Lhasa is located
in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with fragile ecosystem and is a typical ecologically fragile city in alpine areas.
Taking Lhasa as a typical case, this paper constructs a footprint account with Lhasa characteristics,
selects the yield factor and equilibrium factor in Tibet, uses the improved 3D ecological footprint model to
dynamically analyze the utilization of natural capital from 2009 to 2018, and uses the partial least square
method to explore its driving factors, which is helpful to provide reference for the coordinated development
of ecological civilization construction and social economy in Lhasa and similar alpine ecologically fragile
areas. The results show that: 1) From 2009 to 2018, the per capita ecological footprint of Lhasa decreased
first and then fluctuated and increased. The per capita ecological carrying capacity continued to decline,
and the contradiction between supply and demand of natural capital in Lhasa increased and gradually
changed from profit to loss. This shows that the production and life of Lhasa’s population are exerting
increasing pressure on Lhasa's ecosystem. Among them, the biological resources account is the main
driving force of Lhasa’s ecological footprint growth, but the proportion of energy consumption account is
on the rise. From the internal composition of each account, there are obvious differences among different
resource accounts. In the biological resources account, agricultural products account for the largest
proportion, followed by forest products and grass products, and aquatic products account for the smallest
proportion. In the energy consumption account, the per capita ecological footprint of liquefied petroleum
gas accounts for the largest proportion, with the passage of time, the proportion gradually decreases
the proportion of natural gas increases significantly, and the energy use structure is optimized. 2) The
changing trend of footprint depth and footprint breadth indicates that the flow capital can no longer meet
the needs of production and living, and the development of Lhasa is increasingly dependent on the stock
capital. Up to 2018, 14.058 times of cultivated land area and 1.138 times of forest land area are needed to
basically maintain and realize the ecological environment balance and sustainable development of Lhasa.
The per capita ecological footprint breadth of different land types is analyzed, which shows that woodland
and grassland are important natural capital land types in Lhasa, and cultivated land resources are in short
supply, and the development and utilization degree of water and construction land is not high. 3) From
the perspective of land use types, cultivated land is the main way of capital stock consumption, and the
sustainability of resource utilization is weak. The ecological pressure of forest land is increasing, and it is in the transition stage from occupying capital flow to consuming capital stock. Grassland, water area and construction land are occupied by flow capital. Among
them, the occupancy rate of flow capital of construction land and grassland has a significant growth trend, and the water resources share is not high, which has
great development potential. 4) Social investment, consumption level and the development of the tertiary industry in the industrial structure have significant driving
effects on the utilization of natural capital. Among them, the urbanization rate, the development of tertiary industry, and the increase of disposable income of urban
residents and farmers and herdsmen are helpful to restrain the consumption of natural capital. In the research process, due to the limitation of data sources, the
product items in the footprint account are not detailed enough, and the conversion coefficient of energy data is based on the ideal state, which leads to the calculated
ecological footprint being lower than the actual situation, but does not affect the final conclusion. In the future research, these aspects can be improved. |
| Key words: Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Nature Capital Utilization Partial Least Squares Method Driving Factors Lhasa |
