| 摘要: |
| 新型城镇化背景下中国城乡经济基
础和社会状况发生了根本性转变，目前出现
的日趋严峻的“大国空村”“乡村衰败”的现
象与趋势亟须引起关注与重视。论文通过分
析梳理，凝练出乡村空间结构演变的三类驱
动因子，采用层次分析法对这些复杂因子展
开分解与重构，以城郊发展型、平原水网型和
山地资源型三种典型乡村为例，构建各驱动
因子影响权重值的变化曲线以及2005—2015
十年间乡村空间结构的演变图景,尝试揭示两
者之间的内在相关性并对其影响进行量化评
析，以期为乡村空间结构演变与发展提供科
学预判。 |
| 关键词: 乡村空间结构 量化评价 驱动因
子 演变规律 层次分析法 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20190506 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51678127）；
国家 “十二五”科技支撑计划课题
（2013BAJ10B13）；北京未来城市设计高精
尖创新中心项目（UDC2016010100）；国家留
学基金委资助项目（CSC#201706095035、
201706090250） |
|
| Quantitative Analysis of Driving Factors and Their Influences in the Spatial Structure Evolution ofTypical Villages in Southern Jiangsu Province |
|
LIU Jingping,XU Xiaodong
|
| Abstract: |
| In the context of new-type urbanization, Chinese urban-rural economic foundation
and social conditions have been going through radical changes. There are many hollow villages
that are with the risk of extinction in rural areas and the rural decline truly needs serious
attention and study in the country. To scientifi cally predict and judge the development trends and
possible directions for different types of villages, apart from doing researches on their current
situations, there is also a need for intensive research on their longitudinal evolution. Besides, the
rise and application of interdisciplinary research and the new-type quantitative analysis method
have offered new ideas for the rural study in China.
Based on the comprehensive theoretical research and practice summary, three types of
driving factors that have been affecting the evolution of rural spatial structure are extracted fi rst,
namely, the geographical environment, the social economy and the policy factor. To specify,
the geographical environment mainly refers to the explicit factors at the rural material level,
both natural factors and artifi cial built environmental factors included. The social economy, on
the other hand, refers to the intrinsic factors at the rural immaterial level. And the policy factor
refers to the external mandatory intervention on the overall development of the village at the
government level, which appears the latest but with the greatest impact among the three types
of driving factors. In reality, there are many subsets for these three types of driving factors. In
order to analyze these driving factors more concretely while ensuring the comprehensiveness of
the research, and in consideration of the overall characteristics of villages in southern Jiangsu
Province at the same time, eight of them are selected in this paper, namely, topography and the
traffi c and road in the fi rst category, industrial transformation, family composition, construction
technology, and production and life style in the second category, and land policy and social
organization structure in the third category.
Then specific case villages in southern Jiangsu Province are chosen. Because of the late
implementation of standardized management in rural areas and the lack of early data in the
country, this paper selects the time period from 2005 to 2015 as the research scope, aiming to
explore the evolution of rural spatial structure in southern Jiangsu Province. Besides, due to
the limited space, and the characteristics of the geographical environment, the social economy
and the policy system in southern Jiangsu Province, three typical rural space types, namely,the suburban development type, the plain water network type and the mountain resource type, are chosen as the research objects in this study.
Correspondingly, three representative villages are selected as cases, namely, Yahe Village, Nanbei Village and Dajian Village.
By taking these three villages as examples, the eight selected driving factors are then decomposed and reconstructed with the combination of
different analysis methods. Pearson correlation coefficient analysis method is used to analyze the correlation between the pairwise weights of eight
driving factors, and IBM SPSS software is then used for comprehensive analysis. On the basis of this, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is finally
adopted to evaluate and analyze the weight values of the eight driving factors, and the fluctuation curves of eight driving factors’ influences on three
case villages’ spatial structure evolution are then obtained and comprehensively evaluated.
In the meanwhile, on the basis of their Google historical image maps at three time points in 2005, 2010 and 2015, three main spatial structure
elements of the case villages- buildings, rivers and roads, are extracted respectively, which can roughly show their respective spatial structure
evolution trajectories.
At last, with the combination of the quantitative analysis of eight driving factors’ influences on the case villages’ spatial evolution and their
respective historical evolution maps at the three time points, this paper can reasonably analyze their current development status, existing problems,
development potential, as well as the policy suggestions on their future development. The overall characteristics are as follows:
As a rural type that is within the range of effective radiation of the city, the quantitative analysis of the suburban development type village’s
spatial structure evolution shows that its evolution overall presents a growth mode, which has a greater potential for further development and
deserves more policy supports. Also, among the eight driving factors, the land policy, the traffic and road, and the industrial transformation have
relatively greater influences on the evolution of its spatial structure.
The plain water network type village does not have the innate location or resource advantages as the other two types, and most of them are
natural villages that are retained for historical reasons. The quantitative analysis of this type of village shows that if there is no positive policy
guidance, its future development might not be optimistic, and it might even disappear someday.
The mountain resource-based village is supported by its characteristic industry, and the quantitative analysis of its spatial structure evolution
proves that it has certain development advantages. Its evolution trend generally presents a stable development mode, and its own industrial type and
the topography have greater influences on its evolution, which means they can be given appropriate policy supports in the future. |
| Key words: Rural Spatial Structure Quantitative Evaluation Driving Factors Evolution Law the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) |
