| 摘要: |
| 交通拥堵问题已成为学界关注的
热点，大量学者提出若要优化交通组织应从
调整土地利用格局出发，但其在规划具体实
践中能否起到应有的作用仍需探讨。以杭州
市主城区为例，基于居住用地和商业办公用
地两大交通起讫影响要素，设定不同发展目
标，构建“强中心弱边缘”、“弱中心强边缘”
和“中心边缘均衡”3种发展情景，进行出行
生成、出行分布和交通分配的预测，最终得
出不同情景下的交通流量和车行速度的分
布。根据不同情景下交通特征的对比发现，不
同情景对不同片区的交通拥堵状况的改善程
度不一，并且上城区、下城区的交通拥堵状况
始终未得到明显改善。由此可以认为，调整城
市用地布局能够在一定程度上解决部分城市
边缘区域的交通拥堵问题，但无法对市中心
交通拥堵状况的改善起到应有的作用。 |
| 关键词: 情景规划 Trans CAD 空间演
化 杭州 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20160113 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家大学生创新创业训练计划项目
（201310337016） |
|
| Scenario Planning for Traffic Development—A Case Study of Hangzhou |
|
XING Zhong,ZHU Jiayi,YU Qiao
|
| Abstract: |
| Growing concerns have been raised on traffic congestion. Researchers propose that
optimizing land use can provide a way to solve the traffic congestion, but it is hard to prove
accurately if it has a certain effect on the practice of urban planning. In this research, based
on the layout and development intensity of residential and commercial land, three scenarios
are built. The operation of trip generation, O-D matrix and trip assignment are proposed to
approach the distribution of traffic flow and speed. The comparison of traffic flow and speed is
proposed to reach some conclusions: (1) the degree of improvement of each area is different in
each scenario, and especially that the traffic congestion has not been changed in Shangcheng
District and Xiacheng District; (2) controlling the urban layout and development intensity can
ease traffic congestion within a specified area excluding the downtown. |
| Key words: Scenario Planning Trans CAD Spatial Evolution Hangzhou |
