| 摘要: |
| 生态文明是中国式现代化的重要组成部分，提升生态系统多样性、稳定性、持续性任重道远。以山西省作为研究区域，采用能值生态足迹模型评估了该区域生态安全状况；进一步利用灰色关联分析和灰色预测模型揭示了生态安全的影响因素并预测其动态变化趋势。研究表明：（1）2003-2022年山西省人均能值生态承载力呈现出波动变化，波动的范围在0.341-0.547 hm2之间，造成较大波动变化的原因除了社会经济、人口因素外，还与当年的降水量具有密切的关系。(2)山西省人均能值生态足迹呈上升趋势，且各类生产性土地生态足迹中耕地的比重最大，其次为草地；研究期内山西省均处于生态赤字的状态，生态安全在轻度、中度和重度不安全三个等级之间变化。（3）社会、生态环境因素是影响山西省生态安全状况的主要因素，尤其是属于社会因素的城镇化率和生态环境因素的森林覆盖率因素；经济因素对生态安全状况影响较小。（4）山西省2023-2030年人均能值承载力和人均能值生态足迹预测值呈现上升趋势；生态经济发展能力指数的提高和万元GDP生态足迹的下降，表明生态经济系统安全性逐步提高。 |
| 关键词: 生态安全 影响因素 动态变化趋势 能值生态足迹 山西省 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:K901 |
| 基金项目:教育部春晖计划合作科研项目(HZKY20220513)；山西省哲学社会科学规划一般课题(2023YY091) |
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| Ecological security assessment and prediction based on emergy ecological footprint: A case study of Shanxi Province |
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guoxiaojia, zhoujingjing, qiaoyu, liuzhichao
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| Abstract: |
| Ecological civilization is an important part of Chinese-style modernization, and undoubtedly it is a long and arduous task to enhance the diversity, stability and sustainability of the ecosystem. Fully understanding the ecological security situation is an indispensable link to better move towards the stage of sustainable development and high-quality development. . Based on national policies and its own resource endowment, Shanxi Province has been relying more on extensive coal economy for a long time. But this development mode is not only detrimental to the long-term development of cities, but also results in the ecological environment status of Shanxi Province have their own characteristics, and ecological security becomes an obstacle to the sustainable development and high-quality development Based on the actual situation of Shanxi Province and relevant research results, the emergy ecological footprint model was improved by adding pollutant accounts, and the emergy ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint were calculated based on the improved emergy-ecological footprint model. Then, taking into account four factors comprehensively: the degree of resource consumption, the critical state of ecological security, the degree of ecological economic coordination and the economic benefits generated by resources, the ecological security status of Shanxi Province was quantitatively evaluated by constructing four correspondingly evaluation indexes, namely, the ecological deficit/surplus, the ecological pressure index, the ecological economic coordination index and the ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan of regional gross product (GDP).The influence factors of economy, society and ecological environment were confirmed and analyzed by grey correlation method. The ecological security situation of Shanxi Province in the next 10 years is predicted by using grey prediction model. The results showed that: (1) From 2003 to 2022, the per capita emergy ecological carrying capacity of Shanxi Province showed a fluctuating trend, with the fluctuation range ranging from 0.341-0.547hm2. The reasons for the fluctuation were not only socioeconomic and population factors, but also closely related to the precipitation of the current year. (2) The per capita emergy ecological footprint is on the rise, and the ecological environment is obviously improved; and the proportion of cultivated land in ecological footprint of all kinds of productive land in Shanxi Province is the largest, followed by grassland. The per capita ecological footprint is always greater than the per capita ecological carrying capacity, and all of them are in the state of ecological deficit during the study period, and the ecological deficit shows a fluctuating trend, and the ecological deficit shows a decreasing trend, indicating that human social and economic activities exceed the ecological carrying capacity of the ecological environment, and the regional ecological environment is in an unsafe state. The increase of ecological pressure index and the change of ecological security level are related to the industrial structure dominated by traditional energy industry in Shanxi Province for a long time. The ecological coordination coefficient showed a trend of fluctuation decline, indicating that the regional ecological coordination was getting worse and worse. The ecological footprint diversity index showed a fluctuating downward trend, and the ecological footprint diversity index gradually increased, and the development ability of the ecological economy system increased correspondingly. (3) The leading factors affecting ecological security in Shanxi Province are the urbanization rate and forest coverage rate belonging to social factors and ecological environment factors respectively, indicating that social and ecological environment factors are the main factors affecting ecological security in Shanxi Province; The five factors with the lowest correlation degree with the ecological pressure index of Shanxi Province are economic factors, namely, tourism income, output value of the tertiary industry, proportion of the secondary industry, GDP, and output value of the primary industry, indicating that economic factors are secondary factors affecting the ecological security of Shanxi Province. (4) The predicted value of per capita emergy carrying capacity from 2023 to 2030 presents a slow upward trend, indicating that human production and living activities in the future will increase the consumption of resources; The predicted value of regional per capita emergy ecological footprint showed an obvious upward trend, indicating that the consumption of substances and resources and the discharge of pollutants in the city had been effectively controlled. The ecological deficit persists in Shanxi Province, but the expansion trend of per capita emergy ecological deficit slows down. In the next 8 years, the improvement of eco-economic development ability index and the decline of the ecological footprint of 10,000 yuan GDP indicate that in the process of economic development in Shanxi Province, due to the influence of scientific and technological development, policy support, production mode optimization and other factors, ecological productive land in Shanxi Province has realized efficient production and the utilization rate of resources has been continuously improved. On the other hand, it indicates that the sustainability of the region is enhanced, and the eco-economic system is becoming more and more secure. |
| Key words: Ecological security Impact factors Dynamic change trend Emergy ecological footprint Shanxi Province |
