| 摘要: |
| 水禽对湿地生态系统的环境变化较
为敏感，是衡量江湖关系变化和湖库生态环
境质量变化的重要指示生物。栖息地适宜性
评价是开展生物多样性保护的基础与关键。
为探讨专家知识驱动方法在三峡库区栖息地
评价中的应用潜力，本研究采用层次分析法
（Analytic Hierarchy Process， AHP），从食物
条件、隐蔽条件、水文条件、气候以及干扰
5 个方面对库区水禽的越冬栖息地适宜性进
行评价，探讨了1995—2020 期间三峡工程建
设和运行以来越冬水禽适宜生境时空分布及
变化。库区越冬水禽的适宜生境主要分布于
长江主河道及其支流以及周边湿地和水体，
仅占库区总面积的1.6% ~ 2.4%，范围随着土
地覆被变化表现出1995—2000 年大幅下降，
2000 年后稳中有升的趋势。研究结果独立验
证了前人基于数据驱动模型的主要结论，增
强了研究区域越冬水禽栖息地评价结果的可
靠性与稳健性，可为鸟类栖息地适宜性管理
和生物多样性保护提供坚实的科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 越冬水鸟 栖息地适宜性 GIS 土地利用变化 内陆湿地 时空动态 保护
策略 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20250919004 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目（42301055） |
|
| Application and consensus of AHP model in habitat suitability assessment for winteringwaterfowl in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area |
|
XU Fei,HUANG Chen,YANG Yongchuan
|
| Abstract: |
| Waterfowl, being highly sensitive to the conditions of wetland ecosystems, serve as crucial
bio-indicators for monitoring environmental changes, particularly those affecting hydrological
regimes and habitat quality in inland wetlands such as rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. The assessment of
habitat suitability forms the fundamental basis for effective biodiversity conservation strategies. This
study focuses on exploring the potential of expert knowledge-driven methodologies, specifically the
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), for evaluating habitat suitability for wintering waterfowl in the
Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China, a region that has undergone profound ecological
transformations due to the construction and operation of the Three Gorges Dam. This study
investigated the spatiotemporal distribution and dynamic changes in suitable wintering habitats for
waterfowl from 1995 (before the dam’s impoundment) to 2020 (during its full operation). The
evaluation on the habitat suitability was structured around five key criteria integral to waterfowl
survival and resource use during winter, i. e., food availability, shelter, hydrological conditions,
climate, and human disturbance. Wintering waterfowl prefer grasslands and water areas with low
elevation and gentle slopes for foraging. Therefore, land use factors, elevation, and slope serve as
contributing factors in the food availability layer. Proximity to forests was used as a proxy of shelter
as waterfowl are less disturbed when they are closer to the forest edge, especially for some dominant
duck species in the study area. Hydrological condition was measured by closest distance to water
areas during the wintering period. Larger water areas after the impoundment could provide more
abundant water sources for waterfowl, corresponding to higher habitat suitability when waterfowl are
closer to these water sources. Climate factors, particularly average air temperature during the
overwintering period, influence energy expenditure and survival rates. In terms of human disturbance,
distance to residential areas and distance to roads are selected as two contributing factors. Urban
construction, residential areas, and increased road density compress waterfowl living space. The more
intense human activities such as fishing, aquaculture, reclamation, and road construction, the greater
the disturbance to waterfowl habitats. The AHP method allowed for the systematic integration of
expert judgment to weigh the relative importance of these factors. Our results reveal that suitable
habitats for wintering waterfowl in the vast Three Gorges Reservoir Area are remarkably limited and
fragmented, only account for a mere 1.6% to 2.4% of this region. These habitats were predominantly
confined to the main stem of the Yangtze River and its immediate surrounding tributaries and
associated lakes. The study observed a pronounced decline in habitat suitability from 1995 to 2000,
which coincided with the intense construction phase and initial impoundment of the Three Gorges
Dam. However, the habitat suitability trend reversed from 2000 onwards, showing a steady recovery
and growth, concurrent with the reservoir entering its operational phase. By 2020, the total area of
suitable habitats for wintering waterfowl reached 1 392 km2, yet it was still lower than the initial area
3 190 km2 in 1995. This subsequent improvement was possibly linked to progressive land cover
changes and ecological succession. The findings provided an independent validation of the main
conclusions drawn from a previous study in the same area that utilized a data-driven model. Theconvergence of results from two methodologically distinct approaches enhances the reliability of the assessment.In conclusion, this research demonstrates the
valuable application of the AHP method as an important tool for habitat suitability assessment, especially in contexts where comprehensive time-series
ecological data may be scarce. The study provides a clear, quantified picture of the profound impact that the Three Gorges Dam has had on wintering waterfowl
habitats, characterized by extreme habitat limitation and a dynamic trajectory of initial loss and partial recovery. These findings provide insights for adaptive
management strategies aimed at mitigating the dam’s ecological impacts. Conservation efforts can be targeted towards protecting the crucial 1%-2% of suitable
habitat, managing water levels to support multi-functional habitats for various waterfowl, and minimizing human disturbance in key areas. Ultimately, such
knowledge-based assessments are essential for guiding effective actions but long-term monitoring of multiple species in this region is also important in further
studies to help preserve bird habitats and safeguard regional biodiversity in the face of massive anthropogenic environmental change. |
| Key words: wintering waterbirds habitat suitability GIS land use change inland wetlands spatio-temporal dynamics conservation strategy |
