| 摘要: |
| 突发公共卫生事件是现代城市面临的
严重威胁和重要挑战，文章以武汉市为研究对
象，首先基于韧性理论从自然、经济、社会、物
理和组织五个维度构建面向突发公共卫生事
件的城市韧性评价指标体系，然后运用系统动
力学方法构建城市韧性仿真模型，评估武汉市
2009—2020年的城市韧性水平，最后模拟仿真
不同发展情景下2021—2030年城市韧性变化趋
势，并提出针对性的韧性提升措施。研究结果表
明：第一，对城市韧性影响最大的因素分别为信
息传输和计算机服务从业人员数、公共管理和
社会组织单位从业人员数以及卫生机构数；第
二，2009—2020年武汉市城市韧性总体水平稳
步提升，各子系统韧性呈现波浪式增长特征，但2020年受新冠肺炎疫情的影响，其组织、经济、社会和物理韧性出现了较为剧烈的波动；第三，不
同发展情景下，2021—2030年武汉市城市韧性发展趋势差异显著，其中韧性发展型最优，现状延
续型最差。 |
| 关键词: 突发公共卫生事件 城市韧性 仿真 系统动力学 应急管理 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20240411 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金后期资助项目（23FGLB064）；
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目（22YJA6300
35）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（C
UG2642022006） |
|
| Evaluation and simulation of urban resilience for public health emergencies |
|
KE Xiaoling,WANG Chenxi,WANG Lei,GUO Haixiang,CHEN Ningyuan
|
| Abstract: |
| Public health emergencies are serious threats and challenges faced by modern cities.
It is an important concern for all countries in the world to enhance the ability of cities to resist
various sudden public health crises while maintaining their vitality. Resilience theory provides a
new perspective for improving the city’s ability to respond to public health emergencies, which
changes emergency management from result-oriented to process-oriented. Taking Wuhan City,
China as an example, this study discusses the evaluation, simulation and enhancement strategies
of urban resilience in the face of public health emergencies. Firstly, based on the resilience theory,
the evaluation index system of urban resilience is built from five dimensions: natural resilience,
economic resilience, social resilience, physical resilience, and organizational resilience. The sources
of indicators include high-frequency indicators and characteristic indicators. The five resilience
dimensions jointly improve the ability to resist interference, recover and exercise self-control. Then,
this study delineates system boundaries and analyzes internal elements, and clarifies the causal
feedback relationships between indicators. Incorporating pertinent variables and employing the
system dynamics method, a comprehensive urban resilience simulation model is devised to assess
the urban resilience of Wuhan from 2009 to 2020. In addition, the resilience trajectory of Wuhan
from 2021 to 2030 was simulated and predicted by reflecting on different public health emergency
response policies, including the status quo continuation model, the material space priority model,
the social space priority model and the resilience development model. The research results can
provide new ideas and methods for urban governance and emergency management. The results show
that: 1) the most significant factors affecting the resilience of cities are the number of employees in
information transmission and computer services, the number of employees in public administration
and social organizations and the number of health facilities. This emphasizes that urban areas
wishing to improve their ability to cope with unforeseen public health emergencies must strengthen
their information dissemination and control capabilities, ensure the provision of human resources for
public administration departments, and strengthen the allocation of resources for medical care and
public health work. 2) From 2009 to 2020, the urban resilience level of Wuhan steadily improved,
and the resilience level of each subsystem increased in a wave-like manner, with more dramatic
fluctuations in organizational resilience, social resilience, economic resilience, and physical resilience
due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia outbreak in 2020. From 2009 to 2020, the remarkable
improvement of Wuhan’s organizational resilience can be attributed to the allocation of special
resources for urban medical care services and the rapid development of information technology.
Physical resilience displayed a trend of fluctuating growth. The fluctuating growth trend of physical
resilience is closely linked to the level of urban infrastructure development and information
communication. This pattern of f luctuating growth ref lects the imbalance of infrastructure
construction and informatization in Wuhan. 3) Under different policy development scenarios, the
development trends of urban resilience in Wuhan from 2021 to 2030 significantly differ, with theresilience development mode being the best and the status quo continuation mode being the worst. In the scenario of elastic development model, the elasticity
index increased from 0.362 to 0.912, which is the largest among the four scenarios. Under the resilience development mode scenario, balanced progress
across individual subsystems culminates in a state of improved and well-balanced resilience within each. In light of these research outcomes, several
strategies for enhancing urban resilience in responding to public health emergencies are recommended: 1) establishing a comprehensive command system
to bolster emergency decision-making capabilities. Strengthening top-level design is crucial, delineating hierarchical structures and role assignments within
the command system, instituting mechanisms for information communication and sharing, and ensuring swift and accurate transmission of information
between command entities. 2) Enhancing the development of the medical workforce and constructing a resilient healthcare resource system. Evaluation of
the research results demonstrates that in 2020, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, Wuhan experienced a significant decline in physical resilience. This
decline can be attributed to the scarcity of population healthcare resources and inadequate medical facilities. Therefore, it is essential to intensify the training
and preparedness of medical personnel, fortifying collaborative endeavors between the medical workforce, communities, and volunteer organizations.
3) Alleviating the pressure of population aging and promoting social resilience enhancement. Over the past ten years, Wuhan has made the most limited
progress in improving the flexibility of social subsystems, which is mainly restricted by the increasing aging of population. Thus, it is imperative to fortify
the elderly care and support system, refine the elderly care service infrastructure, and enhance the risk resistance capability and quality of life for the elderly
population. (4) Facilitating the transition of Wuhan towards a resilience development mode to attain multidimensional resilience enhancement. Research
findings demonstrate that the resilience development mode represents the optimal trajectory for enhancing urban resilience, necessitating a comprehensive
consideration of factors spanning nature, economy, society, physical, and organizational aspects to optimize the implementation efficacy of limited resources. |
| Key words: public health emergencies urban resilience emulation system dynamics emergency management |
