| 摘要: |
| 明晰区域土地利用结构变化对人为碳
排放的影响有助于制定国土空间低碳优化策
略。以江苏省为案例研究区，基于1997—2017年
长时期土地利用数据与人为活动碳排放量进行
空间关联性分析，运用双变量自相关、耦合协调
度模型探讨土地利用冲突与人为碳排放的时空
格局及其互馈机制。结果表明：（1）受到建设用
地增量与地方政策贡献驱动，江苏省碳排放强
度以2011年为节点先升后趋于平缓。（2）土地利
用冲突与人为碳排放时空演变格局具有负向空
间重叠特征，经济发展增速较快的地区相对经
济发达地区存在更多潜在的国土空间管理冲突
和更少的碳排放增量。（3）江苏省全域土地利
用冲突与碳排放关系处于低耦合与拮抗时期，
60%以上的区县单元内长期维持着稳定的权衡
关系。 |
| 关键词: 空间关联 土地利用冲突 人为碳排
放 互馈机制 江苏省 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20240115 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室开放基金
项目（2021CZEPK07） |
|
| Mutual feedback mechanism of land use conflict and carbon emissions in Jiangsu Provincefrom the spatial correlation perspective |
|
DU Min,LIANG Xinyuan
|
| Abstract: |
| In the context of global warming, carbon emission reduction has become a hot topic
of global concern. Land use changes not only directly lead to carbon emissions from terrestrial
ecosystems, but also indirectly affect anthropogenic carbon emissions. Therefore, clarifying the
impact of regional land use structure changes on anthropogenic carbon emissions will help formulate
low-carbon optimization strategies for national land space. Taking Jiangsu Province as the case study
area, this paper conducts a spatial correlation analysis based on the long-term land use data and
anthropogenic carbon emissions from 1997 to 2017 and uses a bivariate autocorrelation and coupling
coordination degree model to explore the mutual feedback mechanism between land use conflict and
anthropogenic carbon emissions. The results show that from (1)1997 to 2017, anthropogenic carbon
emissions in Jiangsu Province took 2011 as the turning point to show a trend of growth followed
by a gentle transition. The process of land use dynamics centered on the balance of construction
land growth and agricultural land reduction was positively correlated with anthropogenic carbon
emissions, and the strength of policy favoritism would largely affect the incremental amount and
growth rate of anthropogenic carbon emissions. (2) There is spatial overlap between high-value
areas of anthropogenic carbon emissions and low-value areas of land use conflicts in Jiangsu
Province. High-value areas of anthropogenic carbon emissions and low-value areas of land use
conflicts are concentrated in the relatively economically developed southern Jiangsu Province;
while low-value areas of carbon emissions and high-value areas of land use conflicts are mainly
located in northern Jiangsu, where economic development is relatively slow. (3) There is a spatial
spillover effect between anthropogenic carbon emissions and land use conflicts, and according to
the results of bivariate analysis, the relationships between carbon emissions and land use conflicts
can be divided into four types of agglomerations: HL, HH, LL, and LH, and socioeconomic stages
and industrial development characteristics in different regions are significantly differentiated. The
relationship between the two as a whole is in a period of low coupling and antagonism, and more
than 60% of the county units belong to the coordinated type. Overall, there is a certain trade-off
relationship between land use conflicts and anthropogenic carbon emissions. The smaller the land
use conflict, the larger the room for incremental anthropogenic carbon emissions; when the trade-off
threshold is reached between the industrial structure and service types represented by land use, the
conflict value is the largest, but the room for incremental anthropogenic carbon emissions decreases.
Therefore, this study suggests improving the trade-off status of urban, agricultural, and ecological
space through the territory spatial planning strategy, to constrain the growth rate of anthropogenic
carbon emissions. Meanwhile, hotspot areas and pilot projects can be set up to provide references for
neighboring cities by summarizing typical patterns of low-carbon land use paths. According to the
coupling-coordination analysis framework, the carbon emission reduction paths of different types of
land resource allocation modes can be clarified. Combined with the differentiated needs of problem
identification and goal setting, the technical guidance requirements for low-carbon planning of
district and county units will be proposed to take into account the universality and differentiation. |
| Key words: spatial correlation land use conflict anthropogenic carbon emissions mutual feedback
mechanism Jiangsu Province |
