| 摘要: |
| “多规合一”背景下的土地利用演
变及生态优化研究，对于构建完善的国土空
间规划体系，实现土地资源高效利用有着极
其重要的推动意义。以县域城镇绵竹市为样
本，在“多规合一”国家级试点平台的规划背
景下，对2008—2019年的生态承载力进行量
化评价，耦合土地利用阻力-潜力适宜性模型
和CA-Markov模拟模型，对绵竹市城镇用地
开发适宜性及城镇建设用地演变发展进行
探索，针对生态承载力评价、土地开发适宜性
评价及城镇建设用地未来发展模拟结果，结
合“多规合一”的国土空间规划平台，分别提
出以生态为导向的土地利用优化策略，以期
为国内县域城镇“多规合一”的国土空间规划
体系构建提供研究参考。 |
| 关键词: 国土空间规划体系 县域城镇 土地利用演变 生态承载力 适宜性评价 CA-Markov模拟预测 |
| DOI：10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20210518 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:四川省科技厅重点研发项目（20ZDYF2903）；教育
部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区青年基金项
目（18XJCZH003） |
|
| Study on Ecological Optimization Strategy of County Town Land Use Evolution inWestern Sichuan: A Case Study for Mianzhu City of Sichuan Province |
|
FU Fei,LIU Wenwen,FANG Han
|
| Abstract: |
| The study of land use evolution and optimization strategies under the background of “Multi-
plan Integration” has extremely important promotion significance for constructing a complete Territorial
Space Planning System and realizing the efficient use of land resources. On the basis of systematically
combing the relevant national strategic deployment and related research on the construction of China’s
Territorial Space Planning System, it is found that the evaluation of resources and environment carrying
capacity and the suitability evaluation of land space development are the basis for optimizing the land
space development pattern and reasonable layout of construction space. The evaluation of resource
and environment carrying capacity includes the measurement of ecological carrying capacity, and
the evaluation of Land Spatial Suitability comes from the suitability of land development. Therefore,
taking the county town of Mianzhu City as a sample, under the guidance of ecological principles and
methods, and under the planning background of “Multi-plan Integration” national pilot platform, this
paper quantitatively evaluates the per capita ecological carrying capacity, ecological footprint and
ecological profit and loss level of Mianzhu City from 2008 to 2019, and studies the “pressure” of social
and economic development on the ecological environment of Mianzhu City. It’s expected that it will
provide quantitative basis for the coordinated development of city and resources and environment. The
resistance factors of terrain, slope, fluctuation, water area, normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and
geological disaster are selected, and four potential factors are selected, including urban construction area,
traffic roads at all levels, central urban area and village center. The potential resistance model is used to
evaluate the suitability of construction land development in Mianzhu City. The influence of resources,
environment and society is considered in many aspects, and the stability and sensitivity of land and
ecology in the region are studied. Combining with the suitability evaluation of urban construction land
development in Mianzhu City, the CA Markov simulation prediction model is constructed to explore
the suitability of urban construction land development and the evolution and development of urban
construction land in Mianzhu City. The results show that: firstly, in the 10 years of 2008-2019, the
growth rate of per capita ecological carrying capacity in Mianzhu City is smaller than that of per capita
ecological footprint, and the per capita ecological footprint is larger than that of per capita ecological
carrying capacity, so the ecological deficit is more serious. The reason of its fluctuation is that it was
affected by the “5.12” Wenchuan earthquake, which caused a certain degree of damage to the ecological
environment of Mianzhu City. Then, the most unsuitable area is the largest, and the suitable area is thesmallest. The spatial characteristics of suitability are the transition from southeast to northwest, from plain to mountain, and from central city to surrounding
areas. Finally, based on the CA Markov model, coupled with the current situation map of 2008-2019 and the evolution prediction of urban construction land
in 2028 and 2038, the proportion of construction land is 11.17%, 11.88%, 12.25% and 12.60% respectively. The research results conform to the planning
requirements for the layout of urban development and the layout of industrial development in the “13th Five-Year Plan” of Mianzhu, which shows that the
prediction results are of certain accuracy. Combined with the “Multi-plan Integration” Territorial Space Planning System, aiming at the situation of Mianzhu’s
ecological deficit in the evaluation of ecological carrying capacity, the spatial characteristics of urban construction land expansion in the land development
suitability evaluation, and the simulation results of the future spatial development layout of urban construction land, the birth orientation oriented optimization
strategy is respectively presented. In order to provide research reference for the construction of “Multi-plan Integration” Territorial Space Planning System of
county towns in China, ecological oriented optimization strategies are proposed. |
| Key words: Territorial Space Planning System County Town Land Use Evolution Ecological Carrying Capacity Suitability Evaluation CA-Markov Model |
