| 摘要: |
| 快速城镇化进程中，城市发展的
不确定因素越来越多，现有的以人口自然
增长率和机械增长率为基本变量的总体规
划人口规模预测方法已经难以适应这一客
观趋势。针对人口的超常规增长，本文以重
庆市长寿区中心城区人口预测为例，从常住
人口产生的本质动因入手，提出基于就业岗
位的人口预测方法，并对长寿区中心城区的
人口进行了预测。 |
| 关键词: 就业岗位 总体规划 人口规模 预测 长寿区 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51278502）教育部博士点基金（20110191120030） |
|
| Research About Forecastting of the Population Size in the Master Plan Based on Employment—Taking the Master Plan of Changshou District of Chongqing as an Example |
|
HU Weiwei,HUANG Yong
|
| Abstract: |
| In the process of the rapid urbanization, there emerge more and more
uncertainties for development of the city. It has been diffi cult for the method of forecasting
population which takes the natural population growth rate and mechanical growth rate
as the basic variable to adapt to the objective trend. Against to super-normal population
growth in the city, this paper proposes the method of forecasting population and forecasts
the population size of Changshou downtown area in the perspective of essential reasons of
permanent resident population. |
| Key words: Employment Master Plan Population Size Forecast Changshou District |
