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| 日夜复合型热浪对城市居民中暑风险的放大效应与人群脆弱性研究 |
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赵小芳1,2,3, 方思达1,2,3, 周达4, 雷小妹5, 陈滢伊1,2,3
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1.湖北省气候中心;2.三峡国家气候观象台;3.中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室;4.湖北省卫生健康信息中心;5.华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院
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| 摘要: |
| 在全球变暖和城市化效应影响下，热浪给城市居民带来的健康问题日益严重，然而针对日夜复合型热浪多维特征对居民健康风险的影响尚未被充分认识。基于1979—2022年武汉气象观测站的气温、风速、湿度和气压数据及2017—2022年中暑病例数据，利用分布滞后非线性模型定量评估高温热浪事件的多维特征（类型、次序和持续时间）对居民中暑风险的影响。结果表明：武汉市热浪结构在21世纪初出现明显年代际转变，由单一白天型热浪逐渐转变为白天型、夜晚型和日夜复合型热浪共存的格局。从热浪类型来看，复合型热浪发生期间中暑的相对风险（Relative risk, RR）达5.47（95%CI:4.30~6.96）,是单一白天型（RR=1.97, 95%CI:1.48~2.62）和夜晚型（RR=2.01, 95%CI:1.23~3.29）的2~3倍。从热浪次序来看，每年前2次热浪出现期间居民中暑风险较高，第3次及以后的热浪无显著中暑风险，而复合型热浪在每年首次出现时中暑风险最高（RR=3.48, 95%CI:2.68~4.51）。从热浪持续时间来看，单次热浪事件的中暑风险随热浪时间的持续而升高，在第11天中暑风险达峰值（RR=7.13, 95%CI:5.42~9.37），而复合型热浪的峰值出现时间则提前至第8天（RR=9.00, 95%CI: 6.84~11.85）。此外，65岁以上老年人群在复合热浪暴露下的中暑风险是65岁以下人群的近3倍，并伴随明显的收割效应，对热浪持续时间的敏感性最高超过65岁以下人群的5倍。因此，开展高温风险预警时，有必要关注复合型热浪对健康影响的放大效应，针对脆弱人群制定针对性降温措施。 |
| 关键词: 高温热浪 分布滞后非线性模型 复合型热浪 中暑风险 收割效应 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TU981 |
| 基金项目:湖北省自然科学基金创新发展联合(2022CFD127)、湖北省气象局科研项目(2025Y11)和中国气象局青年创新团队（CMA2023QN01）共同资助 |
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| The Amplifying Effect of Day-Night Compound Heatwaves on Heatstroke Risk and Population Vulnerability in Urban Residents |
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ZHAO Xiaofang1,2,3, FANG Sida1,2,3, ZHOU Da4, LEI Xiaomei5, CHEN Yingyi1,2,3
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1.Hubei Province Climate Center;2.Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory;3.Key Open Laboratory of Basin Heavy Rainfall;4.Health Information Center of Hubei Province;5.Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
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| Abstract: |
| Under the influence of global warming and urbanization, urban residents are facing severe health threats during the heatwave exposure. However, the impact of the multidimensional characteristics in day-night compound heatwaves on health risks has not yet been fully understood. Based on meteorological observation data of temperature, wind, humidity and pressure in Wuhan during 1979-2022 and heatstroke cases during 2017-2022, the impacts of multiple characteristics of heatwave (including type, sequence, and duration) on the heatstroke risk was comprehensively evaluated by distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). The results showed that the structure of heatwave in Wuhan exhibited a significant interdecadal shift in the early 21st century, changing from the only daytime heatwaves (DHWs) to coexisting types of daytime, nighttime, and day-night compound heatwaves (CHWs). For the perspective of heatwave type, the relative risks (RR) of heatstroke during CHWs (RR=5.47, 95%CI:4.30~6.96) were 1-2 times higher than those during DHWs (RR=1.97, 95%CI:1.48~2.62) and nighttime heatwaves (NHWs, RR=2.01, 95%CI:1.23~3.29). For the perspective of heatwave sequence, the RR of heatstroke were significantly elevated (RR=3.48, 95%CI:2.68~4.51) during the annual first and second heatwaves, whereas no statistically significant risk was detected from the third or subsequent heatwave. CHWs pose the highest heatstroke risk when they first occur each year (RR=3.48, 95%CI:2.68~4.51). For the perspective of heatwave duration, the RR of heatstroke (RR=7.13, 95%CI:5.42~9.37) peaks on day 11 of heatwave event and gradually declines thereafter. During CHWs, the peak risk occurred earlier on day 8 (RR=9.00, 95%CI: 6.84~11.85). The elderly (≥65 years) showed nearly triple heatstroke risk of the people﹤65 years old during CHW, with pronounced harvesting effects. Notably, the elderly exhibited 5-fold greater sensitivity to heatwave duration compared to people﹤65 years old. These findings highlight that it was necessary for heatwave early warning to focus on the amplification effect of CHW on the health and implement targeted cooling interventions for vulnerable populations. |
| Key words: heatwave distributed lag non-linear model compound heatwaves heatstroke risk harvesting effect |
