| 摘要: |
| 碳氧平衡是生态系统可持续演替的重要依据，城市作为人工复合生态系统，碳氧平衡是衡量城市可持续发展的关键指标。本研究以多源数据为基础，对2015年-2023年沈阳市碳汇释氧量和碳释耗氧量进行估算，逐年计算碳平衡值和氧平衡值，再利用BP神经网络模型对2024年-2028年全市碳汇释氧量、碳释耗氧量和碳、氧平衡值进行预测，最后提出规划引导策略。2015-2028年间，全市均处于碳氧失衡状态，碳汇、释氧、碳释和耗氧过程的复合增长率分别为1.3%、1.3%、-1.1%和-0.8%，碳氧失衡状况持续得到改善。为实现碳氧平衡，2024-2028年间，全市林地和草地规模将分别增加约28.33 hm2和53.99 hm2，同时累计退耕面积约为103.13 hm2。为此，本研究从三类国土空间规划角度提出逐年增加生态用地供给的规划引导策略。碳氧平衡法和BP神经网络模型的组合使用可实现对研究区碳氧平衡状态的持续预测，为生态用地供给提供参考依据。 |
| 关键词: 碳氧平衡 BP神经网络 碳汇释氧 碳排耗氧 沈阳市 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TU984. |
| 基金项目:辽宁省自然科学基金计划博士科研启动项目:严寒地区城市荒野时空格局识别与多情景预测研究（2025-BS-0881）；辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目:老工业地区城市更新策划方法研究（LJ212411035010） |
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| Research on Dynamic Prediction of Carbon-Oxygen Balance in Shenyang City Based on BP Neural Network Model |
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zhan mingsong
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School of Architecture and Engineering, Shenyang University
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| Abstract: |
| Carbon-oxygen balance is a crucial basis for the sustainable succession of ecosystems. As an artificial composite ecosystem, the city regards carbon-oxygen balance as a key indicator for measuring urban sustainable development. Based on multi-source data of Shenyang City from 2015 to 2023, including land use data, major energy consumption, permanent resident population, industrial activity scale, animal husbandry scale and heating area, this study estimated the carbon sequestration-oxygen release and carbon emission-oxygen consumption of Shenyang, calculated the annual carbon balance value and oxygen balance value, and then used the BP neural network model to predict the city’s natural carbon sequestration, artificial carbon sequestration, photosynthetic oxygen release, energy-related carbon emission, respiratory carbon emission, energy-related oxygen consumption, respiratory oxygen consumption, as well as carbon and oxygen balance values for the period of 2024–2028. Finally, to achieve the goal of carbon-oxygen balance, territorial spatial planning proposals for Shenyang from 2024 to 2028 were put forward.
The results show that Shenyang has been in a state of carbon-oxygen imbalance from 2015 to 2028. The compound growth rates of carbon sequestration, oxygen release, carbon emission and oxygen consumption processes are 1.3%, 1.3%, -1.1% and -0.8% respectively, indicating that the carbon-oxygen imbalance has been continuously alleviated. To realize the carbon-oxygen balance target, the area of woodlands and grasslands in the city will increase by approximately 28.33 hectares and 53.99 hectares respectively from 2024 to 2028, while the cumulative grain-for-green area will reach about 103.13 hectares. Accordingly, this study proposes planning guidance strategies for increasing the supply of ecological land year by year from the perspectives of three types of territorial spatial planning:At the level of master territorial spatial planning: Clarify rigid indicators for the total growth scale of ecological land.At the level of detailed territorial spatial planning: Formulate regional structural indicators following the principle of “one plot, one policy, one indicator” based on the actual conditions of each land parcel. Incorporate carbon sequestration-oxygen release and carbon emission-oxygen consumption into the detailed planning control list, and enhance the carbon-oxygen synergy capacity of built-up areas through precise regulation, so as to link the carbon neutrality target with spatial governance.At the level of special territorial spatial planning: Take newly added ecological land as a key carrier for optimizing the urban carbon-oxygen balance pattern, and integrate it accurately into the layout of the urban ecological space system.The data source of this model is mainly time-series statistical data. It conducts total amount control over the supply of ecological land in master territorial spatial planning, and continuously predicts the evolution trend of territorial spatial patterns. In turn, it provides support for the formulation of rigid control indicators at the detailed planning level and the continuous optimization of the urban ecological space system in special planning, thereby collectively laying a foundation for the achievement of the carbon neutrality target.This study conducts a simulation and prediction of the total supply of ecological land represented by woodlands, farmlands and grasslands. Its differences from the current territorial spatial planning are mainly reflected in the following two aspects:(1) Differences in the accuracy and rigidity of ecological land supply: The existing territorial spatial planning mainly focuses on total amount control, while this study attempts to conduct quantitative prediction on the current supply of ecological land represented by woodlands and grasslands from the supply side.(2) Differences in the goal orientation and implementation path of farmland adjustment: The existing territorial spatial planning takes the strict protection of permanent prime farmland as the primary goal. On the premise of this goal, this study provides data support for the orderly advancement of grain-for-green tasks, so as to realize the synergistic governance of food security and ecological security.This study constructs a matching mechanism of “carbon-oxygen balance—ecological land supply”, which can track the change trends of carbon sequestration-oxygen release and carbon emission-oxygen consumption in real time. It converts the carbon-oxygen balance target into ecological land scale indicators, and decomposes the total amount control at the master planning level into the rigid regulation of specific land parcels at the detailed planning level. This mechanism can provide an effective basis for ecological land during the planning period, thereby improving the dynamic adaptability of territorial spatial planning.This study optimizes the shift from static description to dynamic prediction of urban carbon-oxygen balance in existing research methods, and realizes the reasonable prediction of urban carbon emission-oxygen consumption, carbon sequestration-oxygen release and carbon-oxygen balance trends. The study finds that the carbon sequestration-oxygen release of the city will continue to increase in the next five years, and the carbon-oxygen imbalance will be continuously alleviated. |
| Key words: Carbon-Oxygen Balance BP Neural Network Oxygen Release from Carbon Sinks Carbon Emissions and Oxygen Consumption Shenyang City |
