| 摘要: |
| 伴随我国社会经济发展变速换挡与医疗卫生事业水平提升，居民生育率逐年下降与人均预期寿命增长态势并存，超、特大城市更面临少子老龄化、深度老龄化等进程叠加压缩的严峻形势，养老服务设施配置优化、养老服务创新供给等问题亟待攻克，传统养老服务设施专项规划技术范式的编制思路、方法与内容等亟需进行适应性转变。上海的老龄化在全国具有代表性和先导性，深圳作为移民城市则呈现“突变式”人口老龄化趋势，国土空间规划体系变革背景下沪深均对养老服务设施专项规划编制开展创新性探索实践,涵盖设施布局规划、功能复合使用、协作保障机制等规划、建设、治理全周期内容。因此，以上海与深圳养老服务设施布局专项规划为典型案例，通过对比分析养老服务现状特征与关键问题，从“人—地—业”耦合的视角探讨超大城市养老服务设施布局专项规划的编制路径，以“人”的需求驱动规划导向，重塑用地与养老产业格局；以“地”作为空间载体支撑人的需求，通过存量优化与复合利用促进银发经济发展；以“业”的协同激化市场动能，满足多元化的养老需求。综上，为探索适应超大城市特点的养老服务设施专项规划编制与实施、积极应对人口老龄化态势提供新思路与新路径。 |
| 关键词: 养老服务设施 专项规划 编制体系 上海 深圳 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:G642 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42201219)；教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(22YJC790070)；广东省基础与应用基础研究基金委员会区域联合基金项目(青年基金项目)(2020A1515110768) |
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| Research on the Planning and Implementation Framework of Specialized Planning for Elderly Care Service Facilities in Megacities from the Perspective of 'Population-Land-Industry' Coupling —A Comparison Study between Shanghai and Shenzhen |
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lin haoxi1, feng xiaoman1, huang jinchuan2, chen yunqian3, feng hongtao4,5
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1.Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture;2.INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHIC SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH;3.Beijing National Day School;4.Hebei Normal University Of Science &5.Technology
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| Abstract: |
| As China's socioeconomic development enters a new phase and healthcare standards continue to improve, the population structure is undergoing profound transformations. On one hand, the sustained decline in fertility rates has intensified the trend of population aging with fewer children; on the other hand, increasing life expectancy has accelerated the aging process. Against this backdrop of “dual decline and dual rise” in demographic dynamics, megacities and large cities face particularly severe challenges—where declining birthrates and deepening aging converge, exacerbating the imbalance between the supply and demand of elderly care services. Optimizing the allocation of elderly care facilities and innovating service delivery models have thus become critical issues in contemporary urban planning and social governance. Traditional specialized planning for elderly care facilities, with its established methodologies, technical approaches, and content frameworks, struggles to adapt to these new realities. There is an urgent need to explore planning pathways tailored to the unique characteristics of megacities. In China, Shanghai's aging trajectory is both representative and pioneering. As one of the first cities to enter deep aging nationwide, Shanghai has a high and rapidly growing elderly population, with care demands becoming increasingly diverse and quality-oriented. At the same time, constrained by its high-density built environment, the core challenge lies in rationally distributing elderly care facilities within its intensively developed urban space. In contrast, Shenzhen, a quintessential migrant city, exhibits an “abrupt” aging pattern. While its overall population remains relatively young due to large inflows of working-age migrants, its registered elderly population is growing at an alarming rate, accompanied by unique phenomena such as “seasonal elderly migration” and “relocation-based elderly care”. This results in highly mobile and spatially uneven demands for elderly care services, necessitating more flexible and forward-looking planning approaches. Although these two cities differ in their aging patterns, they share common challenges, including insufficient supply of elderly care facilities, uneven spatial distribution, inadequate integration of medical and elderly care services, and low market participation. Therefore, against the backdrop of reforms in the territorial spatial planning system, exploring specialized planning methodologies for elderly care facilities that suit the characteristics of megacities holds significant theoretical and practical value. To address these challenges, this study proposes an elderly care facility planning framework based on the “people-land-industry” coupling perspective, advancing the elderly care service system through coordinated efforts in demand-side, spatial, and industrial dimensions. (1) People-Centered: Precision Planning Driven by Demand. The core of elderly care facility planning lies in accurately identifying the genuine needs of the elderly population. Traditional planning often relies on static per-capita indicators, which fail to adapt to the dynamic nature of aging trends. Therefore, big data analytics (e.g., mobile signaling data, community surveys) should be employed to precisely map the spatial distribution, behavioral patterns, and service preferences of the elderly. For instance, Shanghai has adopted the “15-minute community living circle” concept in its planning to promote embedded elderly care facilities, ensuring proximity to services. Meanwhile, Shenzhen explores a “smart elderly care” model, using digital tools to dynamically adjust facility supply and meet the diverse needs of its mobile elderly population. (2) Land-Based: Stock Optimization and Mixed-Use Development. Given the scarcity of land resources in megacities, relying solely on newly allocated land for elderly care facilities is no longer viable. Instead, strategies such as stock revitalization and functional integration must be adopted to enhance land-use efficiency. Key measures are as follows. Stock Repurposing: Converting underutilized office buildings and commercial spaces into elderly care institutions or community service centers. Mixed-Use Development: Co-locating elderly care facilities near transit-oriented development (TOD) hubs to foster medical-care integration. Vertical Layouts: Exploring “vertical elderly care communities” in high-density urban areas to improve accessibility. Shanghai has piloted “embedded elderly care” in central districts like Jing’an and Huangpu, utilizing idle community spaces for micro-facilities. Shenzhen, meanwhile, incentivizes enterprises to repurpose existing land for elderly care through policies like floor area ratio bonuses, stimulating market participation. (3) Industry-Mediated: Synergistic Development and Market Activation. Elderly care services are not only a social welfare issue but also a burgeoning industry with vast potential. Planning should promote the “silver economy” and attract private capital into elderly care provision. Key measures are as follows. Integrated Medical-Care Services: Encouraging collaboration between medical institutions and elderly care facilities to provide continuous health services. Smart Elderly Care: Adopting wearable devices and telemedicine technologies to enhance service efficiency. Consumption Innovations: Piloting initiatives like “elderly care vouchers” and “time banking” to stimulate market vitality. Shanghai has established a diversified service system combining community-based, institutional, and home-based elderly care, with social enterprises playing an active role. Shenzhen, on the other hand, explores “cross-district elderly care” models, developing health and wellness industries in peripheral areas like the Shenzhen-Shantou Special Cooperation Zone to alleviate pressure on the urban core. The aging challenges in megacities are complex and multifaceted, requiring a departure from conventional planning paradigms to establish an end-to-end governance model encompassing “precise demand identification—efficient spatial allocation—synergistic industrial development”. The practices of Shanghai and Shenzhen demonstrate that future planning should prioritize following measures. Dynamic Adaptability: Implementing a “five-year rolling evaluation” mechanism to promptly respond to demographic shifts. Multi-Stakeholder Governance: Fostering collaboration among government, market, and community actors to build a sustainable elderly care ecosystem. Technological Innovation: Leveraging digital tools such as GIS spatial analysis and AI-driven demand forecasting to enhance planning precision. Looking ahead, further exploration of innovative models—such as cross-regional elderly care resource coordination and age-friendly community development—will provide replicable and scalable experiences for megacities nationwide in addressing the challenges of population aging. |
| Key words: Elderly care facilities Specialized Planning Planning system Shanghai Shenzhen |
