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养老设施需求背景下的微观尺度城市老年人口预测
方 园,刘 声,阮一晨,祝立雄
作者单位
方 园 浙江大学建筑工程学院博士研究生 
刘 声 ( 通讯作者):浙江大学城市学院讲师 120361565@qq.com 
阮一晨 浙江大学建筑工程学院硕士研究生 
祝立雄 浙江大学建筑工程学院博士研究生 
摘要:
为满足城市养老设施需求,精细 化配置养老资源,有必要整体把控城市微 观尺度下的老年人口发展现状与趋势。本文 以杭州拱墅区为例,以人口普查数据与社区 上报数据为基础,运用年龄移算法预测街 道、社区老年人口数量、密度与年龄结构的 发展趋势,并提出相应的养老设施规模、空 间布局、设施组成等规划建议。结果显示, 社区层面的老年人口分布差异远大于街道层 面,未来城市老年人口将呈高速增长趋势, 密度呈“基数越大,增长程度越大”特征, 低龄老人占比呈增长趋势。养老设施规划与 更新中应根据老人数量发展趋势确定社区 养老设施规模,根据密度发展趋势实现街 道层面分区布局,并根据年龄结构合理确定 各类养老设施比例。
关键词:  微观尺度  城市老年人口预测  养 老设施  年龄移算法
DOI:10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20170406
分类号:
基金项目:
Forecast of Micro-Scale Urban Elderly Population Based on the Demands of Pension Facilities
FANG Yang,LIU Sheng,RUAN Yichen,ZHU Lixiong
Abstract:
To meet the needs of urban pension facilities and fi nely confi gure old-age resources, it is necessary to grasp the overall micro-scale urban population development status and trends. Based on census data and community reporting data, this paper takes Hangzhou Gongshu District as an example, uses the age shift algorithm to predict the number, density and age structure of the development trend of the elderly population in the street and community level, and puts forward the corresponding planning recommendations in the size, the spatial layout, and the composition of the old-age facilities. The results show that the spatial distribution of the population at the community level is much larger than that of the street level. The future of urban elderly population will show a rapid growth trend. The density has the characteristic of " the larger the base, the greater the degree of growth.". And the proportion of young people is increasing. Pension facilities planning and updating should be based on the number, density and the age structure of elderly development trends to determine the size of pension facilities in community level, the partition layout in street level, and the proportion of various types of pension facilities.
Key words:  Micro-scale  Urban Elderly Population Forecast  Pension Facility  Age Shift Algorithm